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Crude Oil Monitor

Crude Oil Prices

WTI price was $68.0 on December 01, 2021. YTD growth is 0%. It's 19.6% down from the 5 year top of $84.6. Brent price was $70.8 on December 01, 2021. YTD growth is 0%. It's 17.8% down from the 5 year top of $86.1.

Brent - WTI spread was $2.8 on December 01, 2021. YTD growth is 0%.

Brent is in backwardation. The difference between December 15, 2021 and December 15, 2025 prices is $84.4. One year ago the difference between December 15, 2021 and December 15, 2024 prices was $2.9, so Brent market was in backwardation.

WTI is in backwardation. The difference between December 15, 2021 and December 15, 2025 prices is $24.4. One year ago the difference between December 15, 2021 and December 15, 2025 prices was $4.1, so WTI market was in backwardation.

Source: CTFC

WTI NUMEX long - short money managers open positions was 268,340 contracts on November 23, 2021. YTD growth is 50.4%. It's 349.5% up from the 5 year bottom of 59,699 contracts and below the middle line in the 5 year coridor which implies downside pressure for the oil price.

Source: CTFC

WTI NUMEX money managers open long positions were 316,079 contracts on November 23, 2021. YTD growth is 19.6%. They are 61.3% up from the 5 year bottom of 195,923 contracts. WTI NUMEX money managers open short positions were 47,739 contracts on November 23, 2021. YTD growth is -44.3%. They are 237.8% up from the 5 year bottom of 14,132 contracts.

Global Crude Oil Demand and Production

Source: EIA

For the quarter ending March 31, 2022 world oil demand is forecasted at 99.83 mln. bpd, production at 99.90 mln. bpd so inventories change is expected at 0.07 mln. bpd. This implies oil price will have a pressure toward decrease this quarter.

Crude Oil Inventories

Source: EIA

US crude oil inventories, excluding Strategic Petrolium Reserve (SPR) were 433,111 thousand barrels on November 26, 2021. YTD growth is -0.4%. They are 9.9% up from the 5 year bottom of 394,137 thousand barrels which implies support for the oil price.

OECD commercial crude oil and other liquids inventory is expected to reach 2,851 mln. barrels on December 31, 2022.

Source: EIA

US oil inventories, excluding SPR, are 0.00 mln. bbl (0.0%) higher from the minimum of 0.0 mln. bbl during the last 5 years.

US Crude Oil Production

Source: EIA, Baker Hughes

US crude oil production was 11,500 thousand bpd on November 19, 2021. YTD growth is -10.9%. It's 12.2% down from the 5 year top of 13,100 thousand bpd.

Source: Baker Hughes

US oil rig count was 467 rigs on November 24, 2021. YTD growth is -30.8%. It's 171.5% up from the 5 year bottom of 172 rigs.

Source: Baker Hughes

The number of oil rigs in the US regions with the most active drilling activity is the following as of November 24, 2021: Permian 280 rigs, Eagle Ford 37 rigs, Cana Woodford 24 rigs and other oil regions 85 rigs.

Key US Tight Oil Regions

Source: EIA

US tight oil production by regions as of December 01, 2021 is the following: Anadarko 368 th. bpd, Appalachia 124 th. bpd, Bakken 1,142 th. bpd, Eagle Ford 1,083 th. bpd, Haynesville 34 th. bpd, Niobrara 612 th. bpd and Permian 4,953 th. bpd.


Notes

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bpd - barrels per day
bbl - barrel, barrels
th. - thousand, thousands
mln. - million, millions
YTD - year to date