Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. CAPEX surged on 115% while Revenue dropped on 17.9%
09/15/2020 • About Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (
$CBRL) • By InTwits
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. reported FY2020 financial results today. Here are the key drivers of the company's long term financial model:
- Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. is a company in decline: FY2020 revenue growth was -17.9%, 5 years revenue CAGR was -2.4%
- EBITDA Margin is relatively stable: 12.1% in FY2020 vs. 12.7% in FY2019 vs. 12.3% in FY2016
- Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. has medium CAPEX intensity: 5 year average CAPEX/Revenue was 5.8%. At the same time it's in pair with industry average of 6.2%
- CAPEX is quite volatile: $297m in FY2020, $138m in FY2019, $152m in FY2018, $111m in FY2017, $114m in FY2016
- The company has business model with low profitability: ROIC is 8.6%
- It operates with medium-size leverage: Net Debt/EBITDA is 3.9x while industry average is 4.2x
Below you can find a comprehensive analysis of the key data driving the company's performance and the stock price.
Revenue and profitability
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.'s Revenue dropped on 17.9%. Revenue decline showed acceleration in FY20Q4 - it was 37.1% YoY. Revenue decline was accompanies by EBITDA margin decline. EBITDA Margin decreased slightly on 0.63 pp from 12.7% to 12.1% in FY2020. During FY2016-FY2020 EBITDA Margin topped in FY2017 at 13.7% and was declining since that time.
Gross Margin decreased on 6.1 pp from 14.2% to 8.1% in FY2020. During FY2016-FY2020 Gross Margin topped in FY2017 at 15.5% and was declining since that time. SG&A as a % of Revenue increased slightly on 1.3 pp from 7.6% to 9.0% in FY2020.
Net Income margin decreased on 8.6 pp from 7.3% to -1.3% in FY2020. During FY2016-FY2020 Net Income margin topped in FY2018 at 8.2% and was declining since that time.
Investments (CAPEX, working capital and M&A)
In FY2020 Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. had CAPEX/Revenue of 11.8%. Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.'s CAPEX/Revenue increased on 8.0 pp from 3.8% in FY2017 to 11.8% in FY2020. For the last three years the average CAPEX/Revenue was 7.1%. Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. invested a big chunk of EBITDA (97.6%) to CAPEX which didn't stop revenue from falling.
Return on investment
The company operates at low but positive ROIC (8.6%) and negative ROE (-6.3%). ROIC dropped on 18.7 pp from 27.2% to 8.6% in FY2020. ROE dropped on 44.0 pp from 37.7% to -6.3% in FY2020. During FY2016-FY2020 ROIC topped in FY2017 at 32.3% and was declining since that time. During the last 5 years ROE topped in FY2018 at 44.0% and was declining since that time.
Leverage (Debt)
Debt level is 3.9x Net Debt / EBITDA and 5.3x Debt / EBITDA. Net Debt / EBITDA surged on 3.0x from 0.9x to 3.9x in FY2020. Debt jumped on 306% while cash surged on 1,085%. During the last 5 years Net Debt/EBITDA bottomed in FY2017 at 0.6x and was growing since that time.
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. has no short term refinancing risk: cash is higher than short term debt (534.9%).
Management team
The company's CEO is Sandra B Cochran "Sandy". Sandra B Cochran "Sandy" has 9 years tenure with the company. The company's CFO Jill M Golder has spent 4 years with the company.
Financial and operational results
FY ended 07/31/2020
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. ($CBRL) key annual financial indicators| mln. $ | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2020/2019 |
|---|
P&L
|
|---|
| Revenue | 2,912 | 2,926 | 3,030 | 3,072 | 2,523 | -17.9% |
| Gross Profit | 423 | 455 | 437 | 436 | 203 | -53.4% |
| SG&A | 222 | 225 | 227 | 235 | 226 | -3.6% |
| EBITDA | 359 | 399 | 387 | 390 | 305 | -21.9% |
| Net Income | 189 | 202 | 248 | 223 | -32 | -114.5% |
Balance Sheet
|
|---|
| Cash | 151 | 161 | 115 | 37 | 437 | 1,084.8% |
| Short Term Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 82 | |
| Long Term Debt | 400 | 400 | 400 | 400 | 1,543 | 285.7% |
Cash flow
|
|---|
| Capex | 114 | 111 | 152 | 138 | 297 | 115.0% |
Ratios
|
|---|
| Revenue growth | 2.5% | 0.5% | 3.6% | 1.4% | -17.9% | |
| EBITDA growth | 9.4% | 11.4% | -3.1% | 0.8% | -21.9% | |
|
|---|
| Gross Margin | 14.5% | 15.5% | 14.4% | 14.2% | 8.1% | -6.1% |
| EBITDA Margin | 12.3% | 13.7% | 12.8% | 12.7% | 12.1% | -0.6% |
| SG&A, % of revenue | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 1.3% |
| Net Income Margin | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.3% | -1.3% | -8.6% |
| CAPEX, % of revenue | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 11.8% | 7.3% |
|
|---|
| ROIC | 29.2% | 32.3% | 29.0% | 27.2% | 8.6% | -18.7% |
| ROE | 35.6% | 37.7% | 44.0% | 37.7% | -6.3% | -44.0% |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 0.7x | 0.6x | 0.7x | 0.9x | 3.9x | 3.0x |
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. ($CBRL) key quoterly financial indicators
| mln. $ | FY20Q1 | FY20Q2 | FY20Q3 | FY20Q4 | | YoY change |
|---|
P&L
|
|---|
| Revenue | 749 | 846 | 433 | 495 | | 2.1% | 4.2% | -41.5% | -37.1% |
| EBITDA | 112 | 129 | -28 | 70 | | 29.3% | 25.5% | -130.2% | -35.5% |
| Net Income | 43 | 61 | -162 | 25 | | -8.4% | 0.7% | -421.2% | -61.5% |
Balance Sheet
|
|---|
| Cash | 43 | 73 | 363 | 437 | | -57.5% | -57.0% | 116.8% | 1,084.8% |
| Short Term Debt | 51 | 50 | 44 | 82 | | - | - | - | - |
| Long Term Debt | 952 | 921 | 1,396 | 1,543 | | 138.0% | 130.2% | 249.1% | 285.7% |
Ratios
|
|---|
| Gross Margin | 13.8% | 13.9% | -7.5% | 3.1% | | 0.0% | -0.0% | -21.4% | -12.2% |
| EBITDA Margin | 14.9% | 15.3% | -6.5% | 14.1% | | 3.1% | 2.6% | -19.0% | 0.4% |
| Net Income Margin | 5.8% | 7.2% | -37.4% | 5.1% | | -0.7% | -0.3% | -44.3% | -3.2% |
Peers in Restaurants
Below we provide Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. benchmarking against other companies in Restaurants industry for the last 5 years. We show data for the top-5 companies by key financial metric together with the median value for all the companies in the industry.
Top companies by Revenue growth, %
| Top | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 |
|---|
| Rave Restaurant Group, Inc. ($RAVE) | - | -57.1% | -42.0% | -18.5% | -18.6% |
| |
|---|
| Median (1 company) | - | -57.1% | -42.0% | -18.5% | -18.6% |
|---|
| Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. ($CBRL) | - | 0.5% | 3.6% | 1.4% | -17.9% |
Top companies by Gross margin, %
| Top | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 |
|---|
| Rave Restaurant Group, Inc. ($RAVE) | 6.4% | 46.6% | 75.8% | 90.9% | 95.6% |
| |
|---|
| Median (1 company) | 6.4% | 46.6% | 75.8% | 90.9% | 95.6% |
|---|
| Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. ($CBRL) | 14.5% | 15.5% | 14.4% | 14.2% | 8.1% |
Top companies by EBITDA margin, %
| Top | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 |
|---|
| Rave Restaurant Group, Inc. ($RAVE) | -5.5% | -33.1% | 0.1% | -1.9% | 6.0% |
| |
|---|
| Median (1 company) | -5.5% | -33.1% | 0.1% | -1.9% | 6.0% |
|---|
| Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. ($CBRL) | 12.3% | 13.7% | 12.8% | 12.7% | 12.1% |
Top companies by CAPEX/Revenue, %
| Top | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 |
|---|
| Rave Restaurant Group, Inc. ($RAVE) | 13.3% | 2.2% | 7.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| |
|---|
| Median (1 company) | 13.3% | 2.2% | 7.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
|---|
| Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. ($CBRL) | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 11.8% |
Top companies by ROIC, %
| Top | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 |
|---|
| Rave Restaurant Group, Inc. ($RAVE) | -43.0% | -162.4% | -26.8% | -12.9% | -0.9% |
| |
|---|
| Median (1 company) | -43.0% | -162.4% | -26.8% | -12.9% | -0.9% |
|---|
| Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. ($CBRL) | 29.2% | 32.3% | 29.0% | 27.2% | 8.6% |
Top companies by Net Debt / EBITDA
| Top | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 |
|---|
| Rave Restaurant Group, Inc. ($RAVE) | - | - | 19.6x | - | 4.5x |
| |
|---|
| Median (1 company) | - | - | 19.6x | - | 4.5x |
|---|
| Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. ($CBRL) | 0.7x | 0.6x | 0.7x | 0.9x | 3.9x |
