Cicero Inc revenue started to decline in 2018: dropped 35.9% vs. 5.4% growth a year earliner
03/29/2019 • About Cicero Inc (
$CICN) • By InTwits
Cicero Inc reported 2018 financial results today. Here are the key drivers of the company's long term financial model:
- Cicero Inc is a company in decline: 2018 revenue growth was -35.9%, 5 years revenue CAGR was -17.4%
- The company operates at negative EBITDA Margin: -220.1%
- Cicero Inc motivates its personel by high Stock Based Compensation (SBC): average SBC/Revenue for 2014-2018 was 0.0% while average EBITDA Margin was -161.0% for the sames years
- Cicero Inc has low CAPEX intensity: 5 year average CAPEX/Revenue was 0.3%.
Below you can find a comprehensive analysis of the key data driving the company's performance and the stock price.
Revenue and profitability
The company's Revenue dropped on 35.9%. Annual revenue decline showed slowdown in 18Q4 - revenue decreased on 6.3%. Having declining revenue the company managed to increase EBITDA margin. EBITDA Margin surged on 42.7 pp from -126% to -83.8% in 2018.
Gross Margin dropped on 24.2 pp from 57.2% to 33.0% in 2018. SG&A as a % of Revenue jumped on 27.8 pp from 108% to 136% in 2018.
Net Income margin dropped on 84.0 pp from -160% to -244% in 2018.
Investments (CAPEX, working capital and M&A)
In 2018 the company had CAPEX/Revenue of 0.24%. The company showed almost no change in CAPEX/Revenue from 2015 to 2018. For the last three years the average CAPEX/Revenue was 0.26%.
Leverage (Debt)
Debt level is -1.7x Net Debt / EBITDA and Debt / EBITDA. Net Debt / EBITDA didn't change in 2018. Debt jumped on 108% while cash surged on 73.2%.
Cicero Inc has short term refinancing risk: cash is only 23.6% of short term debt.
Financial and operational results
FY ended 12/31/2018
Cicero Inc ($CICN) key annual financial indicators| mln. $ | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2018/2017 |
|---|
P&L
|
|---|
| Revenue | 1.903 | 1.943 | 1.251 | 1.318 | 0.845 | -35.9% |
| Gross Profit | 1.140 | 1.256 | 0.669 | 0.754 | 0.279 | -63.0% |
| SG&A | 2.078 | 2.231 | 1.393 | 1.429 | 1.151 | -19.5% |
| EBITDA | -2.143 | -2.407 | -3.540 | -1.740 | -1.860 | |
| Net Income | -3.927 | -2.843 | -3.908 | -2.114 | -2.065 | |
Balance Sheet
|
|---|
| Cash | 0.020 | 1.009 | 0.091 | 0.056 | 0.097 | 73.2% |
| Short Term Debt | 8.492 | 2.098 | 5.483 | 1.220 | 0.411 | -66.3% |
| Long Term Debt | 0.000 | 2.132 | 0.000 | 0.890 | 3.976 | 346.7% |
Cash flow
|
|---|
| Capex | 0.007 | 0.010 | 0.003 | 0.004 | 0.002 | -50.0% |
Ratios
|
|---|
| Revenue growth | -13.2% | 2.1% | -35.6% | 5.4% | -35.9% | |
| EBITDA growth | -17.7% | 12.3% | 47.1% | -50.8% | 6.9% | |
|
|---|
| Gross Margin | 59.9% | 64.6% | 53.5% | 57.2% | 33.0% | -24.2% |
| EBITDA Margin | -112.6% | -123.9% | -283.0% | -132.0% | -220.1% | -88.1% |
| SG&A, % of revenue | 109.2% | 114.8% | 111.4% | 108.4% | 136.2% | 27.8% |
| Net Income Margin | -206.4% | -146.3% | -312.4% | -160.4% | -244.4% | -84.0% |
| CAPEX, % of revenue | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.1% |
|
|---|
Cicero Inc ($CICN) key quoterly financial indicators
| mln. $ | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | | YoY change |
|---|
P&L
|
|---|
| Revenue | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | -64.3% | -22.1% | -13.8% | -6.3% |
| Net Income | -1 | -1 | -1 | -0 | | | | | |
Balance Sheet
|
|---|
| Cash | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 110.3% | 60.0% | -17.6% | 73.2% |
| Short Term Debt | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | | -62.4% | -33.1% | 345.5% | -66.3% |
| Long Term Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | | 10.2% | 10.2% | -47.9% | 346.7% |
Ratios
|
|---|
| Gross Margin | 31.9% | 33.7% | 32.0% | 34.3% | | -44.1% | -14.6% | -7.7% | -5.8% |
| Net Income Margin | -254.9% | -278.0% | -252.5% | -199.2% | | -185.2% | -53.0% | -8.1% | 21.9% |
Peers in Application Software
Below we provide Cicero Inc benchmarking against other companies in Application Software industry for the last 5 years. We show data for the top-5 companies by key financial metric together with the median value for all the companies in the industry.
Top companies by Revenue growth, %
| Top 5 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 |
|---|
| nFusz Inc ($FUSZ) | | | | | 433.3% |
| CloudCommerce Inc ($CLWD) | | -38.1% | 247.6% | 40.9% | 301.1% |
| Seven Stars Cloud Group, Inc. ($SSC) | | 134.7% | 663.8% | 310.3% | 161.7% |
| Aurora Mobile Limited ($JG) | | | | 304.9% | 150.8% |
| Intelligent Systems Corporation ($INS) | | 14.2% | 71.0% | 12.2% | 119.0% |
| |
|---|
| Median (151 companies) | -43.3% | 14.0% | 14.3% | 15.7% | 15.2% |
|---|
| Cicero Inc ($CICN) | | 2.1% | -35.6% | 5.4% | -35.9% |
Top companies by Gross margin, %
| Top 5 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 |
|---|
| Skkynet Cloud Systems Inc ($SKKY) | 99.7% | 97.4% | 98.0% | 97.6% | 96.5% |
| hopTo Inc ($HPTO) | 91.8% | 87.8% | 95.9% | 98.2% | 95.4% |
| Aware, Inc. ($AWRE) | 75.4% | 87.2% | 90.3% | 94.6% | 92.3% |
| Alteryx, Inc. ($AYX) | 77.5% | 80.5% | 81.3% | 83.4% | 91.0% |
| Aspen Technology, Inc. ($AZPN) | 86.5% | 88.7% | 89.7% | 90.2% | 89.9% |
| |
|---|
| Median (150 companies) | 63.4% | 61.7% | 64.2% | 64.6% | 66.1% |
|---|
| Cicero Inc ($CICN) | 59.9% | 64.6% | 53.5% | 57.2% | 33.0% |
Top companies by EBITDA margin, %
| Top 5 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 |
|---|
| Aspen Technology, Inc. ($AZPN) | 34.5% | 42.2% | 46.0% | 45.2% | 43.3% |
| ANSYS, Inc. ($ANSS) | 45.9% | 45.8% | 45.1% | 41.9% | 41.4% |
| Paycom Software, Inc. ($PAYC) | 15.1% | 19.5% | 35.1% | 34.4% | 35.9% |
| j2 Global, Inc. ($JCOM) | 41.6% | 40.6% | 41.7% | 36.5% | 35.7% |
| Adobe Inc. ($ADBE) | 17.5% | 25.9% | 31.2% | 34.2% | 35.3% |
| |
|---|
| Median (152 companies) | -10.1% | -9.4% | -4.7% | -3.3% | -3.2% |
|---|
| Cicero Inc ($CICN) | -112.6% | -123.9% | -283.0% | -132.0% | -220.1% |
Top companies by CAPEX/Revenue, %
| Top 5 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 |
|---|
| TimefireVR Inc ($TFVR) | 0.0% | 350.5% | 4.3% | | 1,021.9% |
| MGT Capital Investments Inc ($MGTI) | 0.0% | 36.5% | 221.4% | 129.8% | 344.5% |
| Integrated Ventures Inc ($INTV) | | | | | 199.9% |
| ShotSpotter, Inc. ($SSTI) | | 18.3% | 28.9% | 27.1% | 24.3% |
| Ellie Mae, Inc. ($ELLI) | 12.3% | 20.6% | 16.7% | 21.1% | 19.4% |
| |
|---|
| Median (153 companies) | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.4% |
|---|
| Cicero Inc ($CICN) | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
Top companies by ROIC, %
| Top 5 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 |
|---|
| InsPro Technologies Corp ($ITCC) | -558.9% | | | | 127.4% |
| Manhattan Associates, Inc. ($MANH) | 64.8% | 78.7% | 99.3% | 102.5% | 80.9% |
| Intuit Inc. ($INTU) | 34.2% | 23.7% | 52.1% | 72.6% | 66.8% |
| Aspen Technology, Inc. ($AZPN) | 133.4% | | | | 58.1% |
| Paycom Software, Inc. ($PAYC) | 16.7% | 30.5% | 75.4% | 51.1% | 47.5% |
| |
|---|
| Median (179 companies) | -14.3% | -12.2% | -9.5% | -11.0% | -9.8% |
|---|
| Cicero Inc ($CICN) | | | | | |
Top companies by Net Debt / EBITDA
| Top 5 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 |
|---|
| Upland Software, Inc. ($UPLD) | | | 16.4x | 115.6x | 16.7x |
| Nuance Communications, Inc. ($NUAN) | 7.9x | 5.7x | 5.3x | 7.1x | 15.2x |
| Asure Software Inc ($ASUR) | 3.4x | 4.5x | 3.6x | 9.5x | 14.5x |
| SS&C Technologies Holdings, Inc. ($SSNC) | 1.7x | 7.3x | 4.6x | 3.1x | 8.5x |
| Avaya Holdings Corp. ($AVYA) | | | | | 7.4x |
| |
|---|
| Median (70 companies) | -1.4x | -1.0x | -0.9x | -0.8x | -0.7x |
|---|
