QIWI plc reports 46.5% revenue growth in 2018 and 5.6 pp EBITDA Margin decline from 22.9% to 17.4%
03/28/2019 • About QIWI plc (
$QIWI) • By InTwits
QIWI plc reported 2018 financial results today. Overall the company's long term financial model is characterised by the following facts:
- QIWI plc is a fast growth stock: 2018 revenue growth was 46.5%, 5 year revenue CAGR was 21.3% at 2018 ROIC 18.2%
- EBITDA Margin is declining: 17.4% in 2018 vs. 22.9% in 2017 vs. 29.6% in 2014
- QIWI plc has low CAPEX intensity: 5 year average CAPEX/Revenue was 1.8%. At the same time it's in pair with industry average of 3.6%
- CAPEX is quite volatile: $736m in 2018, $360m in 2017, $388m in 2016, $88m in 2015, $294m in 2014
- The company has highly profitable business model: ROIC is 18.2%
Below you can find a comprehensive analysis of the key data driving the company's performance and the stock price.
Revenue and profitability
The company's Revenue jumped on 46.5%. Revenue growth showed small slowdown in 18Q4 - it was 45.8% YoY. During the last 5 years Revenue growth bottomed in 2016 at 0.92% and was accelerating since that time. Despite revenue decline the EBITDA margin expanded. EBITDA Margin increased slightly on 0.63 pp from 3.1% to 3.7% in 2018. EBITDA Margin stuck to a declining trend at -3.3 pp per annum in the last 5 years.
Gross Margin decreased on 2.7 pp from 53.3% to 50.6% in 2018. During 2014-2018 Gross Margin topped in 2017 at 53.3%. SG&A as a % of Revenue increased slightly on 1.7 pp from 29.9% to 31.6% in 2018. During the last 5 years SG&A as a % of Revenue bottomed in 2016 at 19.1% and was growing since that time.
Net Income margin decreased on 3.2 pp from 14.9% to 11.7% in 2018. Net Income margin declined at -5.9 pp per annum in 2014-2018.
Investments (CAPEX, working capital and M&A)
In 2018 QIWI plc had CAPEX/Revenue of 2.4%. CAPEX/Revenue increased slightly on 1.9 pp from 0.50% in 2015 to 2.4% in 2018. Average CAPEX/Revenue for the last three years was 2.1%.
Return on investment
The company operates at good ROIC (18.2%) and ROE (15.3%). ROIC decreased slightly on 0.52 pp from 18.7% to 18.2% in 2018. ROE showed almost no change in 2018. During the last 5 years ROE bottomed in 2016 at 11.7% and was growing since that time.
Leverage (Debt)
Debt level is -7.7x Net Debt / EBITDA and 0.0x Debt / EBITDA. Debt surged while cash jumped on 123%.
The company has no short term refinancing risk: short term debt is zero.
Financial and operational results
FY ended 12/31/2018
QIWI plc ($QIWI) key annual financial indicators| mln. $ | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2018/2017 |
|---|
P&L
|
|---|
| Revenue | 14,719 | 17,717 | 17,880 | 20,897 | 30,610 | 46.5% |
| Gross Profit | 7,446 | 9,022 | 9,234 | 11,134 | 15,481 | 39.0% |
| SG&A | 3,082 | 3,469 | 3,423 | 6,243 | 9,671 | 54.9% |
| EBITDA | 4,363 | 5,553 | 4,933 | 4,787 | 5,313 | 11.0% |
| Net Income | 5,024 | 5,187 | 2,474 | 3,114 | 3,584 | 15.1% |
Balance Sheet
|
|---|
| Cash | 17,080 | 19,363 | 18,997 | 18,406 | 40,966 | 122.6% |
| Short Term Debt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Long Term Debt | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 237 | |
Cash flow
|
|---|
| Capex | 294 | 88 | 388 | 360 | 736 | 104.4% |
Ratios
|
|---|
| Revenue growth | 26.2% | 20.4% | 0.9% | 16.9% | 46.5% | |
| EBITDA growth | 68.4% | 27.3% | -11.2% | -3.0% | 11.0% | |
|
|---|
| Gross Margin | 50.6% | 50.9% | 51.6% | 53.3% | 50.6% | -2.7% |
| EBITDA Margin | 29.6% | 31.3% | 27.6% | 22.9% | 17.4% | -5.6% |
| SG&A, % of revenue | 20.9% | 19.6% | 19.1% | 29.9% | 31.6% | 1.7% |
| Net Income Margin | 34.1% | 29.3% | 13.8% | 14.9% | 11.7% | -3.2% |
| CAPEX, % of revenue | 2.0% | 0.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
|
|---|
| ROIC | 72.2% | 30.4% | 18.6% | 18.7% | 18.2% | -0.5% |
| ROE | 88.4% | 33.5% | 11.7% | 15.2% | 15.3% | 0.2% |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | -3.9x | -3.5x | -3.9x | -3.8x | -7.7x | -3.8x |
QIWI plc ($QIWI) key quoterly financial indicators
| mln. $ | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | | YoY change |
|---|
P&L
|
|---|
| Revenue | 6,394 | 6,992 | 7,943 | 9,281 | | 38.6% | 46.0% | 54.8% | 45.8% |
| EBITDA | 1,380 | 1,302 | 1,274 | 1,357 | | -5.7% | -1.1% | 10.6% | 58.7% |
| Net Income | 931 | 929 | 842 | 882 | | 14.5% | -13.2% | 7.1% | 98.2% |
Balance Sheet
|
|---|
| Cash | 17,626 | 20,486 | 28,881 | 40,966 | | 13.3% | 21.2% | 80.7% | 122.6% |
| Short Term Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | | |
| Long Term Debt | 0 | 186 | 197 | 237 | | | | | |
Ratios
|
|---|
| Gross Margin | 51.6% | 51.1% | 51.1% | 49.0% | | -3.1% | -2.7% | -2.1% | -2.9% |
| EBITDA Margin | 21.6% | 18.6% | 16.0% | 14.6% | | -10.2% | -8.9% | -6.4% | 1.2% |
| Net Income Margin | 14.6% | 13.3% | 10.6% | 9.5% | | -3.1% | -9.1% | -4.7% | 2.5% |
Peers in Data Processing & Outsourced S
Below we provide QIWI plc benchmarking against other companies in Data Processing & Outsourced S industry for the last 5 years. We show data for the top-5 companies by key financial metric together with the median value for all the companies in the industry.
Top companies by Revenue growth, %
| Top 5 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 |
|---|
| Verra Mobility Corp ($VRRM) | | | | | 167.8% |
| StoneCo Ltd ($STNE) | | | | 74.3% | 106.0% |
| PagSeguro Digital Ltd. ($PAGS) | | 107.1% | 68.7% | 121.7% | 71.8% |
| Payment Data Systems, Inc. ($PYDS) | | 7.4% | -16.0% | 20.7% | 71.7% |
| StarTek, Inc. ($SRT) | | 12.8% | 8.9% | -4.8% | 66.4% |
| |
|---|
| Median (55 companies) | | 7.0% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 7.4% |
|---|
| QIWI plc ($QIWI) | | 20.4% | 0.9% | 16.9% | 46.5% |
Top companies by Gross margin, %
| Top 5 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 |
|---|
| Verra Mobility Corp ($VRRM) | | | | 97.4% | 97.5% |
| Everi Holdings Inc. ($EVRI) | 25.8% | 38.3% | 36.1% | 34.5% | 79.9% |
| StoneCo Ltd ($STNE) | | | 69.7% | 70.8% | 79.5% |
| Paychex, Inc. ($PAYX) | 70.9% | 70.5% | 71.0% | 70.8% | 69.9% |
| Global Payments Inc. ($GPN) | 62.7% | 63.2% | 60.4% | 51.5% | 67.5% |
| |
|---|
| Median (44 companies) | 38.4% | 39.5% | 39.2% | 38.9% | 40.9% |
|---|
| QIWI plc ($QIWI) | 50.6% | 50.9% | 51.6% | 53.3% | 50.6% |
Top companies by EBITDA margin, %
| Top 5 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 |
|---|
| Visa Inc. ($V) | 64.0% | 68.9% | 55.6% | 69.2% | 65.8% |
| FleetCor Technologies, Inc. ($FLT) | 56.1% | 50.4% | 52.0% | 50.8% | 55.9% |
| StoneCo Ltd ($STNE) | | | 31.4% | 26.0% | 53.0% |
| Mastercard Incorporated ($MA) | 57.5% | 56.3% | 56.9% | 56.5% | 51.8% |
| Everi Holdings Inc. ($EVRI) | 9.6% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 20.4% | 45.2% |
| |
|---|
| Median (56 companies) | 20.4% | 21.0% | 21.2% | 20.6% | 19.4% |
|---|
| QIWI plc ($QIWI) | 29.6% | 31.3% | 27.6% | 22.9% | 17.4% |
Top companies by CAPEX/Revenue, %
| Top 5 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 |
|---|
| Crypto Co/The ($CRCW) | 0.0% | 0.0% | | 1,216.6% | 853.5% |
| Steel Connect, Inc. ($STCN) | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 75.6% |
| Everi Holdings Inc. ($EVRI) | 3.0% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 21.9% |
| StoneCo Ltd ($STNE) | | | 7.2% | 18.4% | 8.9% |
| Cardtronics plc ($CATM) | 10.2% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 8.0% |
| |
|---|
| Median (56 companies) | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% |
|---|
| QIWI plc ($QIWI) | 2.0% | 0.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% |
Top companies by ROIC, %
| Top 5 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 |
|---|
| GreenSky, Inc. ($GSKY) | | | | 156.4% | 93.7% |
| Mastercard Incorporated ($MA) | 63.5% | 57.5% | 57.5% | 60.6% | 64.7% |
| Paychex, Inc. ($PAYX) | 54.5% | 58.7% | 61.9% | 63.9% | 64.5% |
| NIC Inc. ($EGOV) | 64.6% | 61.2% | 63.1% | 52.1% | 39.3% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc. ($ADP) | 23.9% | 28.9% | 37.9% | 36.6% | 37.5% |
| |
|---|
| Median (62 companies) | 13.3% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 10.2% |
|---|
| QIWI plc ($QIWI) | 72.2% | 30.4% | 18.6% | 18.7% | 18.2% |
Top companies by Net Debt / EBITDA
| Top 5 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 |
|---|
| StarTek, Inc. ($SRT) | -0.1x | | 2.2x | 2.3x | 18.4x |
| Square, Inc. ($SQ) | | | | | 13.3x |
| Steel Connect, Inc. ($STCN) | -12.5x | | | | 12.6x |
| Exela Technologies Inc ($XELAU) | | | 8.1x | | 9.7x |
| Alliance Data Systems Corporation ($ADS) | 9.3x | 9.1x | 10.7x | 10.1x | 9.0x |
| |
|---|
| Median (54 companies) | 0.6x | 0.7x | 1.6x | 2.3x | 2.2x |
|---|
| QIWI plc ($QIWI) | -3.9x | -3.5x | -3.9x | -3.8x | -7.7x |
