Vipul CAPEX surged on 31.5% while Revenue dropped on 21.0%
30-05-2016 • About Vipul (
$VIPUL) • By InTwits
Vipul reported FY2016 financial results today. Overall the company's long term financial model is characterised by the following facts:
- Vipul is a company in decline: FY2016 revenue growth was -21.0%, 5 years revenue CAGR was -13.6%
- EBITDA Margin is quite volatile: 7.1% in FY2016, 4.4% in FY2015, 3.9% in FY2014, 9.1% in FY2013, 8.8% in FY2012
- Vipul has medium CAPEX intensity: 5 year average CAPEX/Revenue was 7.1%. At the same time it's in pair with industry average of 4.1%
- CAPEX is quite volatile: ₹290m in FY2016, ₹221m in FY2015, ₹85m in FY2014, ₹80m in FY2013, ₹213m in FY2012
- The company has potentially unprofitable business model: ROIC is 1.6%
- It operates with high leverage: Net Debt/EBITDA is 27.7x while industry average is 10.6x
Below you can find a comprehensive analysis of the key data driving the company's performance and the stock price.
Revenue and profitability
Vipul's Revenue dropped on 21.0%. Revenue decline happened at the same time with EBITDA margin expansion. EBITDA Margin increased on 2.8 pp from 4.4% to 7.1% in FY2016.
Net Income margin decreased slightly on 0.55 pp from -4.8% to -5.4% in FY2016. Net Income margin stuck to a declining trend at -2.8 pp per annum in FY2012-FY2016.
Investments (CAPEX, working capital and M&A)
Vipul's CAPEX/Revenue was 15.7% in FY2016. The company's CAPEX/Revenue jumped on 13.8 pp from 1.9% in FY2013 to 15.7% in FY2016. For the last three years the average CAPEX/Revenue was 9.5%. Battling declining revenue Vipul made large investments to CAPEX (220% of EBITDA) but that didn't help at least in this year. During the last 5 years CAPEX as a % of Revenue bottomed in FY2013 at 1.9% and was growing since that time.
Return on investment
The company operates at low but positive ROIC (1.6%) and negative ROE (-2.6%). ROIC showed almost no change in FY2016. ROE showed almost no change in FY2016. ROIC followed a declining trend at -1.7 pp per annum in the last 5 years. ROE followed a declining trend at -2.1 pp per annum in the last 5 years.
Leverage (Debt)
Debt level is 27.7x Net Debt / EBITDA and 28.7x Debt / EBITDA. Net Debt / EBITDA surged on 1.6x from 26.0x to 27.7x in FY2016. Debt jumped on 26.7% while cash dropped on 56.2%. Net Debt/EBITDA followed a growing trend at 7.7x per annum in FY2012-FY2016.
Vipul has short term refinancing risk: cash is only 7.6% of short term debt.
Financial and operational results
Vipul ($VIPUL) key annual financial indicators| mln. INR | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2016/2015 |
|---|
P&L
|
|---|
| Revenue | 4,267 | 4,133 | 2,615 | 2,340 | 1,849 | -21.0% |
| EBITDA | 374 | 377 | 103 | 103 | 132 | 28.6% |
| Net Income | 190 | 130 | -79 | -112 | -99 | |
Balance Sheet
|
|---|
| Cash | 379 | 299 | 306 | 321 | 141 | -56.2% |
| Short Term Debt | 353 | 1,111 | 1,278 | 1,515 | 1,853 | 22.3% |
| Long Term Debt | 286 | 311 | 139 | 1,475 | 1,934 | 31.1% |
Cash flow
|
|---|
| Capex | 213 | 80 | 85 | 221 | 290 | 31.5% |
Ratios
|
|---|
| Revenue growth | 11.0% | -3.1% | -36.7% | -10.5% | -21.0% | |
| EBITDA growth | 1,572.1% | 0.9% | -72.6% | -0.7% | 28.6% | |
|
|---|
| EBITDA Margin | 8.8% | 9.1% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 2.8% |
| Net Income Margin | 4.5% | 3.1% | -3.0% | -4.8% | -5.4% | -0.5% |
| CAPEX, % of revenue | 5.0% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 9.4% | 15.7% | 6.3% |
|
|---|
| ROIC | 7.4% | 7.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| ROE | 4.9% | 3.3% | -2.0% | -2.9% | -2.6% | 0.3% |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 0.7x | 3.0x | 10.8x | 26.0x | 27.7x | 1.6x |
Peers in Realty
Below you can find Vipul benchmarking vs. other companies in Realty industry. It's shown for the period of 5 years for the key financial metrics. Each table has median value for all the companies in the industry together with individual financial data of the top-5 companies in the industry by particular financial metric.
Top companies by Revenue growth, %
| Top 5 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 |
|---|
| Pvp Ventures ($PVP) | - | - | 32.9% | -15.9% | 177.3% |
| Ajmera Realty & Infra India ($AJMERA) | - | -61.7% | -1.8% | 109.9% | 92.0% |
| Peninsula Land ($PENINLAND) | - | 39.2% | -62.3% | -42.4% | 90.2% |
| Oberoi Realty ($OBEROIRLTY) | - | 27.3% | -23.4% | 14.1% | 53.7% |
| Nila Infrastructures ($NILA) | - | - | - | 28.7% | 47.2% |
| |
|---|
| Median (28 companies) | -4.5% | 5.6% | -1.8% | 13.2% | 2.3% |
|---|
| Vipul ($VIPUL) | - | -3.1% | -36.7% | -10.5% | -21.0% |
Top companies by Gross margin, %
| Top | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 |
|---|
| Godrej Properties ($GODREJPROP) | 24.9% | 33.3% | 28.9% | 19.4% | 14.7% |
| |
|---|
| Median (1 company) | 24.9% | 33.3% | 28.9% | 19.4% | 14.7% |
|---|
Top companies by EBITDA margin, %
| Top 5 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 |
|---|
| Hubtown ($HUBTOWN) | 53.3% | 72.4% | 67.6% | 82.4% | - |
| Housing Development & Infrastructure ($HDIL) | 75.8% | 40.6% | 102.5% | 78.9% | 68.4% |
| Tci Developers ($TCIDEVELOP) | - | - | - | 75.9% | - |
| Orbit Corporation ($ORBITCORP) | 42.4% | 53.3% | -127.2% | 69.8% | - |
| Oberoi Realty ($OBEROIRLTY) | 59.3% | 58.9% | 54.5% | 56.4% | 47.7% |
| |
|---|
| Median (43 companies) | 20.1% | 18.1% | 20.1% | 22.6% | 18.6% |
|---|
| Vipul ($VIPUL) | 8.8% | 9.1% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 7.1% |
Top companies by CAPEX/Revenue, %
| Top 5 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 |
|---|
| Prozone Intu Properties ($PROZONINTU) | - | - | - | 89.5% | - |
| Ashiana Housing ($ASHIANA) | - | - | - | 26.7% | - |
| Brigade Enterprises ($BRIGADE) | 45.7% | 10.7% | 17.0% | 18.5% | 56.3% |
| Prestige Estates Projects ($PRESTIGE) | 37.7% | 30.2% | 18.8% | 11.6% | 11.2% |
| Parsvnath Developers ($PARSVNATH) | 15.9% | - | 11.6% | 10.6% | 15.6% |
| |
|---|
| Median (30 companies) | 4.7% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% |
|---|
| Vipul ($VIPUL) | 5.0% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 9.4% | 15.7% |
Top companies by ROIC, %
| Top 5 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 |
|---|
| Ahluwalia Contracts (India) ($AHLUCONT) | -3.2% | -15.8% | 5.6% | 21.2% | 27.1% |
| Poddar Developers ($PODDARDEV) | 3.9% | 2.6% | 12.9% | 19.1% | 7.5% |
| Lancor Holdings ($LANCORHOL) | 18.0% | 11.6% | 19.5% | 17.7% | - |
| Mahindra Lifespace Developers ($MAHLIFE) | 10.4% | 11.7% | 6.6% | 14.9% | 4.6% |
| Sobha Developers ($SOBHA) | 18.8% | 16.7% | 14.6% | 12.7% | 9.0% |
| |
|---|
| Median (50 companies) | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% |
|---|
| Vipul ($VIPUL) | 7.4% | 7.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% |
Top companies by Net Debt / EBITDA
| Top 5 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 |
|---|
| Nitesh Estates ($NITESHEST) | 225.8x | - | 5.1x | 5.9x | 151.9x |
| D B Realty ($DBREALTY) | 13.2x | 135.4x | 14.0x | 54.8x | 51.1x |
| Parsvnath Developers ($PARSVNATH) | 5.1x | 4.7x | 14.6x | 9.0x | 36.3x |
| D.S.Kulkarni Developers ($DSKULKARNI) | 56.4x | 16.0x | 12.2x | 9.8x | 19.6x |
| Ansal Properties & Infrastructure ($ANSALAPI) | 12.8x | 11.9x | 11.4x | 16.6x | 13.3x |
| |
|---|
| Median (30 companies) | 5.3x | 5.1x | 4.9x | 4.0x | 4.1x |
|---|
| Vipul ($VIPUL) | 0.7x | 3.0x | 10.8x | 26.0x | 27.7x |
