Tcpl Packaging reports 43.0% CAPEX growth in 2016 and 16.7% Revenue growth
27-05-2016 • About Tcpl Packaging (
$TCPLPACK) • By InTwits
Tcpl Packaging reported FY2016 financial results today. Here are the key drivers of the company's long term financial model:
- Tcpl Packaging is a fast growth stock: FY2016 revenue growth was 16.7%, 5 year revenue CAGR was 19.6% at FY2016 ROIC 23.3%
- Tcpl Packaging has high CAPEX intensity: 5 year average CAPEX/Revenue was 13.0%. At the same time it's a lot of higher than industry average of 17.6%.
- CAPEX is quite volatile: ₹858m in FY2016, ₹600m in FY2015, ₹439m in FY2014, ₹321m in FY2013, ₹511m in FY2012
- The company has highly profitable business model: ROIC is 23.3%
- It operates with medium-size leverage: Net Debt/EBITDA is 1.9x while industry average is 2.0x
Below you can find a comprehensive analysis of the key data driving the company's performance and the stock price.
Revenue and profitability
The company's Revenue jumped on 16.7%. Having declining revenue the company managed to increase EBITDA margin. EBITDA Margin increased slightly on 0.56 pp from -0.99% to -0.44% in FY2016. During the last 5 years EBITDA Margin bottomed in FY2013 at 14.9% and was growing since that time.
Net Income margin showed almost no change in FY2016. Net Income margin grew at 1.1 pp per annum in the last 5 years.
Investments (CAPEX, working capital and M&A)
In FY2016 Tcpl Packaging had CAPEX/Revenue of 14.8%. Tcpl Packaging showed CAPEX/Revenue growth of 6.2 pp from 8.6% in FY2013 to 14.8% in FY2016. It's average CAPEX/Revenue for the last three years was 12.6%. Tcpl Packaging invested a big chunk of EBITDA (85.3%) to CAPEX to fuel its growth. During the last 5 years CAPEX as a % of Revenue bottomed in FY2013 at 8.6% and was growing since that time.
Return on investment
The company operates at high and attractive ROIC (23.3%) and ROE (29.6%). ROIC showed almost no change in FY2016. ROE decreased on 2.3 pp from 31.9% to 29.6% in FY2016. ROIC grew at 2.1 pp per annum in FY2012-FY2016.
Leverage (Debt)
Company's Net Debt / EBITDA is 1.9x and Debt / EBITDA is 2.0x. Net Debt / EBITDA increased on 0.1x from 1.9x to 1.9x in FY2016. Debt surged on 27.8% while cash jumped on 157%. Net Debt/EBITDA followed a declining trend at -0.2x per annum in FY2012-FY2016.
Tcpl Packaging has short term refinancing risk: cash is only 7.7% of short term debt.
Valuation and dividends
The company's trades at EV/EBITDA 6.5x and P/E 12.0x while industy averages are 17.8x and 21.9x. The company's EV/(EBITDA-CAPEX) is 44.1x with the industry average at 22.8x.
Financial and operational results
Tcpl Packaging ($TCPLPACK) key annual financial indicators| mln. INR | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2016/2015 |
|---|
P&L
|
|---|
| Revenue | 2,792 | 3,733 | 3,949 | 4,978 | 5,809 | 16.7% |
| EBITDA | 449 | 556 | 622 | 824 | 1,006 | 22.2% |
| Net Income | 77 | 135 | 125 | 322 | 383 | 18.9% |
Balance Sheet
|
|---|
| Cash | 1 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 59 | 156.7% |
| Short Term Debt | 450 | 623 | 619 | 590 | 770 | 30.7% |
| Long Term Debt | 695 | 632 | 782 | 974 | 1,228 | 26.1% |
Cash flow
|
|---|
| Capex | 511 | 321 | 439 | 600 | 858 | 43.0% |
Ratios
|
|---|
| Revenue growth | 17.8% | 33.7% | 5.8% | 26.1% | 16.7% | |
| EBITDA growth | 28.9% | 23.9% | 11.8% | 32.5% | 22.2% | |
|
|---|
| EBITDA Margin | 16.1% | 14.9% | 15.7% | 16.5% | 17.3% | 0.8% |
| Net Income Margin | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 0.1% |
| CAPEX, % of revenue | 18.3% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 12.1% | 14.8% | 2.7% |
|
|---|
| ROIC | 15.4% | 17.4% | 16.9% | 23.1% | 23.3% | 0.1% |
| ROE | 12.1% | 18.6% | 15.1% | 31.9% | 29.6% | -2.3% |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 2.6x | 2.3x | 2.2x | 1.9x | 1.9x | 0.1x |
Peers in Paper & Paper Products
Below you can find Tcpl Packaging benchmarking vs. other companies in Paper & Paper Products industry. It's shown for the period of 5 years for the key financial metrics. Each table has median value for all the companies in the industry together with individual financial data of the top-5 companies in the industry by particular financial metric.
Top companies by Revenue growth, %
| Top 5 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 |
|---|
| N.R.Agarwal Industries ($NRAGRINDQ) | - | 4.0% | 5.5% | 34.1% | 21.8% |
| South India Paper Mills ($STHINPA) | - | -1.1% | -14.7% | 29.2% | 11.5% |
| Pudumjee Pulp & Paper Mills ($PDUMJEPULP) | 2.1% | 8.4% | 4.9% | 26.5% | - |
| Jk Paper ($JKPAPER) | - | 9.4% | 18.5% | 24.3% | 13.5% |
| Yash Papers ($YASHPPR) | - | -3.6% | 39.5% | 17.3% | 0.6% |
| |
|---|
| Median (14 companies) | 8.2% | 4.7% | 8.4% | -0.3% | 11.5% |
|---|
| Tcpl Packaging ($TCPLPACK) | - | 33.7% | 5.8% | 26.1% | 16.7% |
Top companies by EBITDA margin, %
| Top 5 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 |
|---|
| Tamil Nadu Newsprint & Papers ($TNPL) | 21.0% | 22.2% | 22.5% | 24.0% | 24.3% |
| South India Paper Mills ($STHINPA) | 13.5% | 16.1% | 10.2% | 15.8% | 17.3% |
| Yash Papers ($YASHPPR) | 15.7% | 16.8% | 16.0% | 15.7% | - |
| Kuantum Papers ($KUANTUM) | 11.2% | 14.2% | 15.9% | 12.7% | 29.6% |
| Emami Paper Mills ($EMAMIPAP) | 13.3% | 15.0% | 14.5% | 11.4% | 10.0% |
| |
|---|
| Median (15 companies) | 11.6% | 11.8% | 13.2% | 9.8% | 14.7% |
|---|
| Tcpl Packaging ($TCPLPACK) | 16.1% | 14.9% | 15.7% | 16.5% | 17.3% |
Top companies by CAPEX/Revenue, %
| Top | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 |
|---|
| Tamil Nadu Newsprint & Papers ($TNPL) | 18.9% | 10.4% | 5.5% | 35.2% | 37.4% |
| Emami Paper Mills ($EMAMIPAP) | 24.4% | 7.3% | 19.2% | 89.3% | 21.7% |
| Jk Paper ($JKPAPER) | 47.6% | 59.5% | 15.9% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| |
|---|
| Median (3 companies) | 11.3% | 10.4% | 15.9% | 35.2% | 21.7% |
|---|
| Tcpl Packaging ($TCPLPACK) | 18.3% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 12.1% | 14.8% |
Top companies by ROIC, %
| Top 5 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 |
|---|
| Tamil Nadu Newsprint & Papers ($TNPL) | 5.3% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 13.5% |
| Jk Paper ($JKPAPER) | 5.2% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 4.3% | 10.5% |
| Emami Paper Mills ($EMAMIPAP) | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 2.0% |
| Rama Pulp & Papers ($RAMAPULP) | - | 10.8% | - | - | - |
| Ruchira Papers ($RUCHIRA) | 15.4% | 20.2% | - | - | - |
| |
|---|
| Median (21 companies) | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 4.3% | 10.5% |
|---|
| Tcpl Packaging ($TCPLPACK) | 15.4% | 17.4% | 16.9% | 23.1% | 23.3% |
Top companies by Net Debt / EBITDA
| Top 5 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 |
|---|
| Emami Paper Mills ($EMAMIPAP) | 7.4x | 5.3x | 5.0x | 11.2x | 16.7x |
| Jk Paper ($JKPAPER) | 6.8x | 12.7x | 14.1x | 8.6x | 4.0x |
| Tamil Nadu Newsprint & Papers ($TNPL) | 5.4x | 3.6x | 2.8x | 4.0x | 4.4x |
| Yash Papers ($YASHPPR) | 5.2x | 5.5x | 4.5x | 0.0x | - |
| Sree Sakthi Paper Mills ($SREESAKHTI) | 2.1x | 1.7x | - | 0.0x | - |
| |
|---|
| Median (13 companies) | 3.6x | 3.3x | 0.0x | 0.0x | 0.3x |
|---|
| Tcpl Packaging ($TCPLPACK) | 2.6x | 2.3x | 2.2x | 1.9x | 1.9x |
