Gulf Oil Corporation Net Debt / EBITDA surged on 9.0x from 32.5x to 41.5x in 2015 while Revenue dropped on 70.0%
28-05-2015 • About Gulf Oil Corporation (
$GULFOILCOR) • By InTwits
Gulf Oil Corporation reported FY2015 financial results today. Overall the company's long term financial model is characterised by the following facts:
- Gulf Oil Corporation is a company in decline: FY2015 revenue growth was -70.0%, 5 years revenue CAGR was -3.3%
- EBITDA Margin is quite volatile: 8.2% in FY2015, 3.3% in FY2014, 1.8% in FY2013, 5.5% in FY2012, 5.9% in FY2011
- Gulf Oil Corporation has low CAPEX intensity: 5 year average CAPEX/Revenue was 1.8%. At the same time it's a lot of higher than industry average of 1.5%.
- CAPEX is quite volatile: 74.9 in FY2015, 537 in FY2014, 120 in FY2013, 113 in FY2012, 106 in FY2011
- The company has potentially unprofitable business model: ROIC is at 1.1%
- It operates with high leverage: Net Debt/EBITDA is 41.5x while industry average is 15.9x
Below you can find a comprehensive analysis of the key data driving the company's performance and stock price.
Gulf Oil Corporation ($GULFOILCOR) key annual financial indicators
| mln. INR | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2015/2014 |
|---|
P&L
|
|---|
| Revenue | 11,042 | 12,365 | 12,648 | 13,024 | 3,901 | -70.0% |
| EBITDA | 652 | 681 | 228 | 432 | 320 | -26.0% |
| Net Income | 553 | 482 | 502 | 677 | 416 | -38.6% |
Balance Sheet
|
|---|
| Cash | 308 | 997 | 514 | 432 | 111 | -74.4% |
| Short Term Debt | 1,922 | 3,497 | 3,003 | 1,927 | 2,180 | 13.1% |
| Long Term Debt | 333 | 300 | 17,510 | 12,542 | 11,207 | -10.6% |
Cash flow
|
|---|
| Capex | 106 | 113 | 120 | 537 | 75 | -86.0% |
Ratios
|
|---|
| Revenue growth | 138.9% | 12.0% | 2.3% | 3.0% | -70.0% | |
| EBITDA growth | 34.2% | 4.4% | -66.5% | 89.8% | -26.0% | |
| EBITDA Margin | 5.9% | 5.5% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 8.2% | 4.9% |
| Net Income Margin | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 10.7% | 5.5% |
| CAPEX, % of revenue | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 4.1% | 1.9% | -2.2% |
| ROIC | 6.1% | 4.5% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| ROE | 12.7% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 3.9% | -2.2% |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 3.0x | 4.1x | 87.8x | 32.5x | 41.5x | 9.0x |
Revenue and profitability
Gulf Oil Corporation's Revenue dropped on 70.0% in FY2015. Revenue decline happened at the same time with EBITDA margin expansion. EBITDA Margin increased on 4.9 pp from 3.3% to 8.2% in FY2015.
Net Income marign increased on 5.5 pp from 5.2% to 10.7% in FY2015.
Capital expenditures (CAPEX) and working capital investments
In FY2015 Gulf Oil Corporation had CAPEX/Revenue of 1.9%. CAPEX/Revenue increased slightly on 1.0 pp from 0.91% in FY2012 to 1.9% in FY2015. For the last three years the average CAPEX/Revenue was 2.3%.
Return on investment
The company operates at low ROIC (1.09%) and ROE (3.90%). ROIC showed almost no change in FY2015. ROE decreased on 2.2 pp from 6.1% to 3.9% in FY2015.
Leverage (Debt)
Debt level is 41.5x Net Debt / EBITDA and 41.8x Debt / EBITDA. Net Debt / EBITDA surged on 9.0x from 32.5x to 41.5x in FY2015. Debt decreased on 7.5% in FY2015 while cash dropped on 74.4% in FY2015.
Valuation
Gulf Oil Corporation's trades at EV/EBITDA 64.8x and P/E 17.9x while industy averages are 10.5x and 26.1x. The company's EV/(EBITDA-CAPEX) is 84.7x with the industry average at 4.7x.
Appendix 1: Peers in Oil Marketing & Distribution
Below you can find Gulf Oil Corporation benchmarking vs. other companies in Oil Marketing & Distribution industry. It's shown for the period of 5 years for the key financial metrics. Each table has median value for all the companies in the industry together with individual financial data of the top-5 companies in the industry by particular financial metric.
Top companies by Revenue growth, %
| Top | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| Eastern Gases ($EASTERNGAS) | -65.7% | 51.5% | 54.1% | 8.5% | |
| Indian Oil Corporation ($IOC) | 23.5% | 31.8% | 13.1% | 5.8% | |
| Sah Petroleums ($SAHPETRO) | | 31.3% | -13.1% | -3.3% | 0.9% |
| |
|---|
| Median (3 companies) | -21.1% | 31.8% | 13.1% | 5.8% | 0.9% |
|---|
| Gulf Oil Corporation ($GULFOILCOR) | | 12.0% | 2.3% | 3.0% | -70.0% |
Top companies by EBITDA margin, %
| Top | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| Indian Oil Corporation ($IOC) | 4.8% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 4.3% | |
| Sah Petroleums ($SAHPETRO) | 5.4% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% |
| |
|---|
| Median (2 companies) | 4.8% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.5% |
|---|
| Gulf Oil Corporation ($GULFOILCOR) | 5.9% | 5.5% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 8.2% |
Top companies by CAPEX/Revenue, %
| Top | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| Indian Oil Corporation ($IOC) | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 4.5% | |
| Sah Petroleums ($SAHPETRO) | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 3.9% |
| |
|---|
| Median (2 companies) | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.9% |
|---|
| Gulf Oil Corporation ($GULFOILCOR) | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 4.1% | 1.9% |
Top companies by ROIC, %
| Top | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| Sah Petroleums ($SAHPETRO) | 10.5% | 20.0% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 7.5% |
| Indian Oil Corporation ($IOC) | 8.2% | 12.7% | 6.4% | 8.7% | |
| Eastern Gases ($EASTERNGAS) | 13.4% | 15.4% | 15.1% | | |
| |
|---|
| Median (3 companies) | 10.5% | 15.4% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 7.5% |
|---|
| Gulf Oil Corporation ($GULFOILCOR) | 6.1% | 4.5% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
Top companies by Net Debt / EBITDA
| Top | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| Indian Oil Corporation ($IOC) | 3.8x | 3.6x | 5.7x | 4.4x | |
| Sah Petroleums ($SAHPETRO) | -0.7x | -0.5x | -0.8x | -1.0x | 1.9x |
| |
|---|
| Median (2 companies) | 3.1x | 2.3x | 2.9x | 1.7x | 1.9x |
|---|
| Gulf Oil Corporation ($GULFOILCOR) | 3.0x | 4.1x | 87.8x | 32.5x | 41.5x |
