Go-Ahead Group reports 160% EBITDA growth in 2020 and 6.1% Revenue growth
24 Sep 2020 • About Go-Ahead Group (
$GOG) • By InTwits
Go-Ahead Group reported FY2020 financial results today. Overall the company's long term financial model is characterised by the following facts:
- EBITDA Margin is quite volatile: 12.6% in FY2020, 5.1% in FY2019, 7.1% in FY2018, 6.3% in FY2017, 6.6% in FY2016
- Go-Ahead Group has low CAPEX intensity: 5 year average CAPEX/Revenue was 3.1%. At the same time it's in pair with industry average of 2.3%
- CAPEX is quite volatile: £1m in FY2020, £1m in FY2019, £3m in FY2018, £1m in FY2017, £1m in FY2016
- The company has potentially unprofitable business model: ROIC is 1.8%
Below you can find a comprehensive analysis of the key data driving the company's performance and the stock price.
Revenue and profitability
Go-Ahead Group's Revenue increased on 6.1%. Revenue decline was accompanies by EBITDA margin decline. EBITDA Margin decreased on 4.0 pp from 19.0% to 15.0% in FY2020.
Net Income margin decreased on 2.3 pp from 1.6% to -0.73% in FY2020.
Investments (CAPEX, working capital and M&A)
In FY2020 Go-Ahead Group had CAPEX/Revenue of 2.0%. Go-Ahead Group showed decline in CAPEX/Revenue of 2.1 pp from 4.1% in FY2017 to 2.0% in FY2020. It's average level of CAPEX/Revenue for the last three years was 2.7%. During the last 5 years CAPEX as a % of Revenue topped in FY2017 at 4.1% and was declining since that time.
Return on investment
The company operates at low but positive ROIC (1.8%) and negative ROE (-10.6%). ROIC dropped on 11.0 pp from 12.8% to 1.8% in FY2020. ROE dropped on 30.2 pp from 19.7% to -10.6% in FY2020. ROIC stuck to a declining trend at -7.5 pp per annum in FY2016-FY2020. ROE followed a declining trend at -20.8 pp per annum in the last 5 years.
Leverage (Debt)
Debt level is 1.0x Net Debt / EBITDA and 2.2x Debt / EBITDA. Net Debt / EBITDA surged on 2.2x from -1.2x to 1.0x in FY2020. Debt jumped on 156% while cash decreased on 9.7%.
Go-Ahead Group has no short term refinancing risk: cash is higher than short term debt (108.9%).
Management team
David Brown is a Go-Ahead Group's CEO. David Brown has spent 9 years with the company. The company's CFO is Elodie Brian. Elodie Brian has 1 year tenure at the company.
Financial and operational results
FY ended 27 Jun 2020
Go-Ahead Group ($GOG) key annual financial indicators| mln. £ | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2020/2019 |
|---|
P&L
|
|---|
| Revenue | 3,361 | 3,481 | 3,462 | 3,674 | 3,898 | 6.1% |
| EBITDA | 221 | 219 | 247 | 188 | 490 | 160.0% |
| Net Income | 94 | 89 | 89 | 59 | -29 | -148.6% |
Balance Sheet
|
|---|
| Cash | 636 | 590 | 557 | 631 | 570 | -9.7% |
| Short Term Debt | 0 | 202 | 8 | 7 | 523 | 7,069.9% |
| Long Term Debt | 312 | 158 | 395 | 406 | 535 | 31.9% |
Cash flow
|
|---|
| Capex | 114 | 142 | 138 | 75 | 77 | 3.6% |
Ratios
|
|---|
| Revenue growth | 4.5% | 3.6% | -0.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | |
| EBITDA growth | 28.7% | -0.8% | 12.7% | -23.7% | 160.0% | |
|
|---|
| EBITDA Margin | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 12.6% | 7.4% |
| Net Income Margin | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.6% | -0.7% | -2.3% |
| CAPEX, % of revenue | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | -0.0% |
|
|---|
| ROIC | 33.1% | 25.4% | 22.9% | 12.8% | 1.8% | -11.0% |
| ROE | 79.3% | 47.7% | 36.3% | 19.7% | -10.6% | -30.2% |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | -1.5x | -1.1x | -0.6x | -1.2x | 1.0x | 2.2x |
Peers in Travel & Leisure
Below you can find Go-Ahead Group benchmarking vs. other companies in Travel & Leisure industry. It's shown for the period of 5 years for the key financial metrics. Each table has median value for all the companies in the industry together with individual financial data of the top-5 companies in the industry by particular financial metric.
Top companies by Revenue growth, %
| Top 5 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 |
|---|
| Easyhotel ($EZH) | 8.7% | 39.7% | 33.7% | 56.0% | - |
| Nektan ($NKTN) | 995.3% | 129.1% | 50.1% | 13.5% | - |
| Carnival ($CCL) | 4.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 10.3% | - |
| Intercontinental Hotels Group ($IHG) | 117.0% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | - |
| Tui Ag ($TUI) | -1.9% | 7.9% | -0.4% | 2.5% | - |
| |
|---|
| Median (9 companies) | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 2.5% | -8.2% |
|---|
| Go-Ahead Group ($GOG) | - | 3.6% | -0.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% |
Top companies by Gross margin, %
| Top 5 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 |
|---|
| Intercontinental Hotels Group ($IHG) | 86.0% | 86.0% | 83.7% | 82.9% | - |
| Nektan ($NKTN) | 67.9% | 64.1% | 62.2% | 56.9% | - |
| Easyhotel ($EZH) | 64.3% | 61.3% | 53.5% | 48.1% | - |
| Rank Group ($RNK) | 44.7% | 44.7% | 45.5% | 45.6% | 42.7% |
| Carnival ($CCL) | 42.7% | 40.0% | 41.3% | 38.0% | - |
| |
|---|
| Median (7 companies) | 43.7% | 40.0% | 45.5% | 45.6% | 42.7% |
|---|
Top companies by EBITDA margin, %
| Top 5 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 |
|---|
| Heavitree Brewery ($HVT) | 25.0% | 27.8% | 24.5% | 27.4% | - |
| Carnival ($CCL) | 29.3% | 26.6% | 28.3% | 26.1% | - |
| Eclectic Bar Grp ($BAR) | 6.1% | 11.1% | 13.0% | 21.0% | - |
| Intercontinental Hotels Group ($IHG) | 20.2% | 19.7% | 14.9% | 16.1% | - |
| Easyhotel ($EZH) | 21.6% | 18.0% | 19.4% | 13.5% | - |
| |
|---|
| Median (8 companies) | 17.0% | 17.6% | 15.1% | 14.8% | 15.5% |
|---|
| Go-Ahead Group ($GOG) | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 12.6% |
Top companies by CAPEX/Revenue, %
| Top 5 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 |
|---|
| Easyhotel ($EZH) | 153.2% | 269.8% | 412.1% | 142.5% | - |
| Carnival ($CCL) | 18.7% | 16.8% | 19.9% | 26.1% | - |
| Heavitree Brewery ($HVT) | 17.8% | 15.3% | 10.2% | 6.7% | - |
| Eclectic Bar Grp ($BAR) | 5.5% | 5.4% | 10.5% | 5.5% | - |
| Tui Ag ($TUI) | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | - |
| |
|---|
| Median (7 companies) | 8.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% |
|---|
| Go-Ahead Group ($GOG) | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
Top companies by ROIC, %
| Top 5 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 |
|---|
| Heavitree Brewery ($HVT) | 8.5% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 9.6% | - |
| Carnival ($CCL) | 9.5% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.1% | - |
| Rank Group ($RNK) | 19.7% | 17.3% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 3.6% |
| Eclectic Bar Grp ($BAR) | 1.2% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.4% | - |
| Tui Ag ($TUI) | 15.5% | 14.4% | 12.1% | 6.2% | - |
| |
|---|
| Median (9 companies) | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 3.6% |
|---|
| Go-Ahead Group ($GOG) | 33.1% | 25.4% | 22.9% | 12.8% | 1.8% |
Top companies by Net Debt / EBITDA
| Top 5 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 |
|---|
| Heavitree Brewery ($HVT) | 4.1x | 3.7x | 3.7x | 2.9x | - |
| Easyhotel ($EZH) | -5.0x | -14.0x | -11.4x | 2.5x | - |
| Carnival ($CCL) | 1.8x | 1.9x | 1.7x | 2.0x | - |
| Tui Ag ($TUI) | -0.0x | -0.5x | 0.0x | 1.1x | - |
| Eclectic Bar Grp ($BAR) | 6.8x | 2.1x | 3.4x | 0.7x | - |
| |
|---|
| Median (7 companies) | 1.9x | 1.9x | 1.7x | 1.1x | 3.0x |
|---|
| Go-Ahead Group ($GOG) | -1.5x | -1.1x | -0.6x | -1.2x | 1.0x |
