Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. EBITDA dropped on 55.5% and EBITDA Margin decreased on 5.5 pp from 9.8% to 4.3%
12 Feb 2020 • About Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. (
$TPRD) • By InTwits
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. reported 2019 financial results today. Here are the key drivers of the company's long term financial model:
- Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. has low CAPEX intensity: 5 year average CAPEX/Revenue was 1.9%. At the same time it's a lot of higher than industry average of 5.7%.
- CAPEX is quite volatile: £39m in FY2019, £28m in FY2018, £22m in FY2017, £28m in FY2016, £8m in FY2015
- The company has business model with average profitability: ROIC is 10.9%
- It operates with medium-size leverage: Net Debt/EBITDA is 2.2x while industry average is 2.0x
Below you can find a comprehensive analysis of the key data driving the company's performance and the stock price.
Revenue and profitability
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S.'s Revenue increased slightly on 1.2%. During the last 5 years Revenue growth topped in 2018 at 64.1%. Having declining revenue the company managed to increase EBITDA margin. EBITDA Margin increased slightly on 1.2 pp from 13.7% to 15.0% in FY2019.
Gross Margin decreased on 5.0 pp from 10.4% to 5.5% in 2019. SG&A as a % of Revenue showed almost no change in 2019.
Net Income margin decreased on 3.6 pp from 4.2% to 0.59% in 2019.
Investments (CAPEX, working capital and M&A)
In 2019 the company had CAPEX/Revenue of 1.5%. Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. showed small CAPEX/Revenue decline of 1.0 pp from 2.5% in 2016 to 1.5% in 2019. It's average level of CAPEX/Revenue for the last three years was 1.5%. CAPEX as a % of Revenue followed a declining trend at -0.37 pp per annum in 2015-2019.
Return on investment
The company operates at low ROIC (10.9%) and ROE (4.6%). ROIC dropped on 20.4 pp from 31.2% to 10.9% in 2019. ROE dropped on 32.1 pp from 36.8% to 4.6% in 2019.
Leverage (Debt)
Debt level is 2.2x Net Debt / EBITDA and 5.0x Debt / EBITDA. Net Debt / EBITDA jumped on 0.8x from 1.4x to 2.2x in 2019. Debt increased on 6.3% while cash surged on 78.0%.
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. has no short term refinancing risk: cash is higher than short term debt (205.7%).
Management team
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S.'s CFO is Dogan Korkmaz. Dogan Korkmaz has 4 years tenure at the company.
Financial and operational results
FY ended 31 Dec 2019
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. ($TPRD) key annual financial indicators| mln. TRY | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2019/2018 |
|---|
P&L
|
|---|
| Revenue | 36,893 | 34,855 | 53,948 | 88,552 | 89,601 | 1.2% |
| Gross Profit | 4,175 | 3,649 | 6,214 | 9,224 | 4,884 | -47.0% |
| SG&A | 778 | 913 | 1,088 | 1,233 | 1,675 | 35.9% |
| EBITDA | 3,848 | 3,238 | 5,634 | 8,642 | 3,842 | -55.5% |
| Net Income | 2,550 | 1,793 | 3,812 | 3,713 | 526 | -85.8% |
Balance Sheet
|
|---|
| Cash | 3,028 | 6,051 | 8,802 | 5,983 | 10,652 | 78.0% |
| Short Term Debt | 1,871 | 1,958 | 5,274 | 4,113 | 5,178 | 25.9% |
| Long Term Debt | 8,048 | 10,176 | 9,777 | 13,836 | 13,898 | 0.4% |
Cash flow
|
|---|
| Capex | 961 | 885 | 1,100 | 941 | 1,337 | 42.1% |
Ratios
|
|---|
| Revenue growth | -7.1% | -5.5% | 54.8% | 64.1% | 1.2% | |
| EBITDA growth | 359.9% | -15.9% | 74.0% | 53.4% | -55.5% | |
|
|---|
| Gross Margin | 11.3% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 5.5% | -5.0% |
| EBITDA Margin | 10.4% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 4.3% | -5.5% |
| SG&A, % of revenue | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Net Income Margin | 6.9% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 0.6% | -3.6% |
| CAPEX, % of revenue | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
|
|---|
| ROIC | 25.4% | 16.8% | 25.6% | 31.2% | 10.9% | -20.4% |
| ROE | 35.3% | 21.9% | 41.3% | 36.8% | 4.6% | -32.1% |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 1.8x | 1.9x | 1.1x | 1.4x | 2.2x | 0.8x |
Peers in Oil & Gas Producers
Below we provide Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. benchmarking against other companies in Oil & Gas Producers industry for the last 5 years. We show data for the top-5 companies by key financial metric together with the median value for all the companies in the industry.
Top companies by Revenue growth, %
| Top 5 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 |
|---|
| Parkmead Group(The) ($PMG) | -24.4% | -44.0% | -60.4% | 69.7% | |
| Range Resources ($RRL) | -37.9% | -46.3% | 19.4% | 54.8% | |
| Amerisur Resources ($AMER) | | -22.9% | 79.6% | 27.8% | |
| Royal Dutch Shell ($RDSB) | | -11.8% | 30.6% | 27.3% | -11.2% |
| BP ($BP.A) | | -17.9% | 31.3% | 24.4% | -6.8% |
| |
|---|
| Median (7 companies) | -19.8% | -10.0% | 18.5% | 27.3% | -6.8% |
|---|
| Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. ($TPRD) | | -5.5% | 54.8% | 64.1% | 1.2% |
Top companies by Gross margin, %
| Top 5 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 |
|---|
| Oil & Gas Development Co ($OGDC) | 62.7% | 54.0% | 55.3% | 59.2% | |
| Parkmead Group(The) ($PMG) | -111.5% | -44.2% | 28.5% | 57.8% | |
| Amerisur Resources ($AMER) | -20.2% | -1.1% | 21.3% | 28.4% | |
| Royal Dutch Shell ($RDSB) | 15.9% | 18.2% | 18.0% | 17.3% | 19.0% |
| BP ($BP.A) | 9.5% | 11.9% | 15.1% | 15.4% | 16.9% |
| |
|---|
| Median (6 companies) | 12.6% | 13.7% | 18.2% | 22.8% | 17.9% |
|---|
| Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. ($TPRD) | 11.3% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 5.5% |
Top companies by EBITDA margin, %
| Top 5 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 |
|---|
| Oil & Gas Development Co ($OGDC) | 62.4% | 53.9% | 55.8% | 59.3% | |
| Amerisur Resources ($AMER) | 0.1% | -35.0% | 20.0% | 28.8% | |
| Total Sa ($TTA) | 11.5% | 13.6% | 15.1% | 16.8% | 18.5% |
| Royal Dutch Shell ($RDSB) | 8.9% | 11.7% | 13.7% | 13.7% | 15.0% |
| BP ($BP.A) | 3.0% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 9.4% |
| |
|---|
| Median (7 companies) | 18.8% | 13.3% | 17.9% | 13.7% | 15.0% |
|---|
| Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. ($TPRD) | 10.4% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 4.3% |
Top companies by CAPEX/Revenue, %
| Top 5 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 |
|---|
| Amerisur Resources ($AMER) | 72.4% | 65.8% | 33.8% | 11.7% | |
| Total Sa ($TTA) | 17.5% | 14.2% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 6.7% |
| Oil & Gas Development Co ($OGDC) | 31.5% | 26.0% | 23.2% | 8.5% | |
| Royal Dutch Shell ($RDSB) | 9.9% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% |
| BP ($BP.A) | 8.4% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% |
| |
|---|
| Median (7 companies) | 16.0% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% |
|---|
| Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. ($TPRD) | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% |
Top companies by ROIC, %
| Top 5 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 |
|---|
| Oil & Gas Development Co ($OGDC) | 24.3% | 13.7% | 14.2% | 17.3% | |
| Royal Dutch Shell ($RDSB) | -1.5% | 0.9% | 5.5% | 10.9% | 7.8% |
| Total Sa ($TTA) | 2.5% | 3.2% | 5.8% | 9.2% | 8.8% |
| BP ($BP.A) | -6.1% | -1.8% | 3.9% | 8.7% | 4.3% |
| Amerisur Resources ($AMER) | -11.4% | -13.3% | 0.1% | 5.0% | |
| |
|---|
| Median (18 companies) | 0.5% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% |
|---|
| Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. ($TPRD) | 25.4% | 16.8% | 25.6% | 31.2% | 10.9% |
Top companies by Net Debt / EBITDA
| Top 5 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 |
|---|
| BP ($BP.A) | 4.0x | 3.0x | 1.7x | 1.4x | 2.1x |
| Royal Dutch Shell ($RDSB) | 1.1x | 2.7x | 1.6x | 0.9x | 1.5x |
| Total Sa ($TTA) | 1.9x | 1.7x | 0.8x | 0.8x | 1.1x |
| Oil & Gas Development Co ($OGDC) | -0.1x | -0.1x | -0.0x | -0.0x | |
| Amerisur Resources ($AMER) | -622.4x | | -1.8x | -1.1x | |
| |
|---|
| Median (6 companies) | 1.4x | 0.9x | 0.8x | 0.4x | 1.5x |
|---|
| Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. ($TPRD) | 1.8x | 1.9x | 1.1x | 1.4x | 2.2x |
