St.Modwen Properties CAPEX surged on 23.8% while Revenue decreased slightly on 1.4%
04 Feb 2020 • About St.Modwen Properties (
$SMP) • By InTwits
St.Modwen Properties reported FY2019 financial results today. Here are the key drivers of the company's long term financial model:
- EBITDA Margin is declining: 19.5% in FY2019 vs. 21.3% in FY2018 vs. 47.8% in FY2015
- EBITDA Margin is quite volatile: 19.5% in FY2019, 21.3% in FY2018, 28.6% in FY2017, 32.8% in FY2016, 47.8% in FY2015
- St.Modwen Properties has high CAPEX intensity: 5 year average CAPEX/Revenue was 32.9%. At the same time it's a lot of higher than industry average of 18.9%.
- CAPEX is quite volatile: £139m in FY2019, £113m in FY2018, £62m in FY2017, £90m in FY2016, £161m in FY2015
- The company has potentially unprofitable business model: ROIC is 5.6%
- It operates with medium-size leverage: Net Debt/EBITDA is 3.8x while industry average is 4.5x
Below you can find a comprehensive analysis of the key data driving the company's performance and the stock price.
Revenue and profitability
The company's Revenue decreased slightly on 1.4%. Revenue decline was worsened by EBITDA margin decline. EBITDA Margin decreased slightly on 1.8 pp from 21.3% to 19.5% in FY2019. EBITDA Margin declined at -6.8 pp per annum in FY2015-FY2019.
Net Income margin decreased on 2.0 pp from 13.8% to 11.8% in FY2019.
Investments (CAPEX, working capital and M&A)
St.Modwen Properties's CAPEX/Revenue was 32.4% in FY2019. St.Modwen Properties showed small growth in CAPEX/Revenue of 1.1 pp from 31.3% in FY2016 to 32.4% in FY2019. It's average CAPEX/Revenue for the last three years was 25.8%. St.Modwen Properties has spent a lot to CAPEX (166% of EBITDA) which didn't stop revenue from falling. During FY2015-FY2019 CAPEX as a % of Revenue bottomed in FY2017 at 19.3% and was growing since that time.
Return on investment
The company operates at low ROIC (5.6%) and ROE (4.8%). ROIC decreased slightly on 0.71 pp from 6.3% to 5.6% in FY2019. ROE decreased slightly on 1.1 pp from 5.9% to 4.8% in FY2019.
Leverage (Debt)
Company's Net Debt / EBITDA is 3.8x and Debt / EBITDA is 4.3x. Net Debt / EBITDA surged on 0.8x from 3.0x to 3.8x in FY2019. Debt surged on 15.7% while cash surged on 23.9%.
St.Modwen Properties has no short term refinancing risk: cash is higher than short term debt (3,442.9%).
Valuation and dividends
St.Modwen Properties's trades at EV/EBITDA 17.2x and P/E 22.2x.
Management team
Mark Christopher Allan is a the company's CEO. Mark Christopher Allan is a founder and has spent 3 years with the company. St.Modwen Properties's CFO Robert Hudson "Rob" has spent 9 years with the company.
Financial and operational results
FY ended 30 Nov -0001
St.Modwen Properties ($SMP) key annual financial indicators| mln. £ | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2019/2018 |
|---|
P&L
|
|---|
| Revenue | 287.5 | 287.7 | 318.6 | 436.2 | 429.9 | -1.4% |
| EBITDA | 137.3 | 94.4 | 91.1 | 92.8 | 83.7 | -9.8% |
| Net Income | 216.4 | 53.4 | 59.6 | 60.2 | 50.7 | -15.8% |
Balance Sheet
|
|---|
| Cash | 4.8 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 38.9 | 48.2 | 23.9% |
| Short Term Debt | 184.5 | 176.8 | 0.6 | 3.0 | 1.4 | -53.3% |
| Long Term Debt | 322.4 | 350.6 | 491.3 | 310.2 | 360.9 | 16.3% |
Cash flow
|
|---|
| Capex | 160.5 | 90.0 | 61.6 | 112.5 | 139.3 | 23.8% |
Ratios
|
|---|
| Revenue growth | 7.9% | 0.1% | 10.7% | 36.9% | -1.4% | |
| EBITDA growth | 13.6% | -31.2% | -3.5% | 1.9% | -9.8% | |
|
|---|
| EBITDA Margin | 47.8% | 32.8% | 28.6% | 21.3% | 19.5% | -1.8% |
| Net Income Margin | 75.3% | 18.6% | 18.7% | 13.8% | 11.8% | -2.0% |
| CAPEX, % of revenue | 55.8% | 31.3% | 19.3% | 25.8% | 32.4% | 6.6% |
|
|---|
| ROIC | 10.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | -0.7% |
| ROE | 26.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | -1.1% |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 3.7x | 5.5x | 5.4x | 3.0x | 3.8x | 0.8x |
Peers in Real Estate Investment & Services
Below you can find St.Modwen Properties benchmarking vs. other companies in Real Estate Investment & Services industry. It's shown for the period of 5 years for the key financial metrics. Each table has median value for all the companies in the industry together with individual financial data of the top-5 companies in the industry by particular financial metric.
Top companies by Revenue growth, %
| Top 5 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 |
|---|
| Caledonian Trust ($CNN) | | 6.0% | -29.7% | 65.9% | -4.3% |
| Development Securities ($DSC) | 156.8% | 18.9% | -48.8% | 40.1% | |
| Hml Hldgs ($HMLH) | 16.7% | 7.8% | 12.6% | 24.2% | |
| Safestore Hldgs ($SAFE) | | 10.1% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 5.5% |
| Formation Group ($FRM) | | 23.8% | 25.8% | 4.4% | -8.0% |
| |
|---|
| Median (7 companies) | 2.0% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.8% | -4.3% |
|---|
| St.Modwen Properties ($SMP) | | 0.1% | 10.7% | 36.9% | -1.4% |
Top companies by Gross margin, %
| Top | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 |
|---|
| Caledonian Trust ($CNN) | | 50.4% | 80.5% | 74.8% | 52.8% |
| Damac Real Estate Development Ltd ($DMC) | 59.4% | 55.9% | 48.8% | 34.6% | |
| Safeland ($SAF) | 26.9% | 33.7% | 18.9% | 10.5% | |
| Formation Group ($FRM) | 6.3% | 9.9% | 5.9% | 2.5% | |
| |
|---|
| Median (4 companies) | 34.5% | 42.0% | 31.0% | 22.6% | 52.8% |
|---|
Top companies by EBITDA margin, %
| Top 5 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 |
|---|
| Caledonian Trust ($CNN) | | 17.4% | 191.0% | 316.6% | 238.5% |
| Safestore Hldgs ($SAFE) | 128.4% | 95.1% | 84.8% | 137.7% | 108.3% |
| Safeland ($SAF) | 65.8% | 28.0% | 15.2% | 94.0% | |
| Damac Real Estate Development Ltd ($DMC) | 53.5% | 52.2% | 38.5% | 20.8% | |
| Development Securities ($DSC) | 20.3% | 12.3% | 1.7% | 19.5% | |
| |
|---|
| Median (7 companies) | 24.8% | 28.0% | 20.8% | 20.8% | 173.4% |
|---|
| St.Modwen Properties ($SMP) | 47.8% | 32.8% | 28.6% | 21.3% | 19.5% |
Top companies by CAPEX/Revenue, %
| Top 5 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 |
|---|
| Safestore Hldgs ($SAFE) | 7.2% | 24.5% | 16.7% | 19.2% | 25.5% |
| Hml Hldgs ($HMLH) | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | |
| Safeland ($SAF) | 19.5% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | |
| Development Securities ($DSC) | 24.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.4% | |
| Caledonian Trust ($CNN) | | 0.3% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| |
|---|
| Median (7 companies) | 5.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 13.0% |
|---|
| St.Modwen Properties ($SMP) | 55.8% | 31.3% | 19.3% | 25.8% | 32.4% |
Top companies by ROIC, %
| Top 5 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 |
|---|
| Safestore Hldgs ($SAFE) | 17.8% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 16.5% | 12.1% |
| Caledonian Trust ($CNN) | | 0.6% | 4.7% | 11.7% | 7.6% |
| Hml Hldgs ($HMLH) | 12.5% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 9.1% | |
| Safeland ($SAF) | 31.2% | 22.5% | 6.7% | 8.9% | |
| Damac Real Estate Development Ltd ($DMC) | 41.5% | 24.5% | 16.0% | 6.5% | |
| |
|---|
| Median (9 companies) | 4.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 9.8% |
|---|
| St.Modwen Properties ($SMP) | 10.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% |
Top companies by Net Debt / EBITDA
| Top 5 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 |
|---|
| Development Securities ($DSC) | 3.5x | 5.7x | 70.8x | 3.9x | |
| Safeland ($SAF) | 1.2x | 1.3x | 1.2x | 3.4x | |
| Safestore Hldgs ($SAFE) | 2.1x | 3.4x | 3.2x | 2.1x | 2.7x |
| Caledonian Trust ($CNN) | | 25.7x | 4.0x | 1.4x | 2.3x |
| Hml Hldgs ($HMLH) | 0.4x | 0.5x | 1.3x | 0.6x | |
| |
|---|
| Median (6 companies) | 4.5x | 4.5x | 3.4x | 1.7x | 2.5x |
|---|
| St.Modwen Properties ($SMP) | 3.7x | 5.5x | 5.4x | 3.0x | 3.8x |
