Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. revenue surged on 64.1% and EBITDA Margin decreased slightly on 0.68 pp from 10.4% to 9.8%
13 Feb 2019 • About Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. (
$TPRD) • By InTwits
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. reported 2018 financial results today. Here are the key drivers of the company's long term financial model:
- Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. is a fast growth stock: 2018 revenue growth was 64.1%, 5 year revenue CAGR was 16.6% at 2018 ROIC 31.2%
- EBITDA Margin is quite volatile: 9.8% in 2018, 10.4% in 2017, 9.3% in 2016, 10.4% in 2015, 2.1% in 2014
- Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. has low CAPEX intensity: 5 year average CAPEX/Revenue was 2.8%. At the same time it's a lot of higher than industry average of 10.6%.
- CAPEX is quite volatile: 941 TRYm in 2018, 1,100 TRYm in 2017, 885 TRYm in 2016, 961 TRYm in 2015, 2,258 TRYm in 2014
- The company has highly profitable business model: ROIC is 31.2%
Below you can find a comprehensive analysis of the key data driving the company's performance and the stock price.
Revenue and profitability
The company's Revenue surged on 64.1%. Revenue decline was slowing down on average by 19.7 pp per annum in the last 5 years. Revenue decline was accompanies by EBITDA margin decline. EBITDA Margin decreased slightly on 0.72 pp from 27.3% to 26.6% in 2018.
Gross Margin decreased slightly on 1.1 pp from 11.5% to 10.4% in 2018. SG&A as a % of Revenue decreased slightly on 0.62 pp from 2.0% to 1.4% in 2018. During the last 5 years SG&A as a % of Revenue topped in 2016 at 2.6% and was declining since that time.
Net Income margin decreased on 2.9 pp from 7.1% to 4.2% in 2018.
Investments (CAPEX, working capital and M&A)
The company's CAPEX/Revenue was 1.1% in 2018. The company showed small CAPEX/Revenue decline of 1.5 pp from 2.6% in 2015 to 1.1% in 2018. It's average level of CAPEX/Revenue for the last three years was 1.9%. CAPEX as a % of Revenue declined at -0.98 pp per annum in 2014-2018.
Return on investment
The company operates at high and attractive ROIC (31.2%) and ROE (36.8%). ROIC increased on 5.6 pp from 25.6% to 31.2% in 2018. ROE decreased on 4.5 pp from 41.3% to 36.8% in 2018.
Leverage (Debt)
Company's Net Debt / EBITDA is 1.4x and Debt / EBITDA is 2.1x. Net Debt / EBITDA jumped on 0.3x from 1.1x to 1.4x in 2018. Debt jumped on 19.3% while cash dropped on 32.0%.
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. has no short term refinancing risk: cash is higher than short term debt (145.4%).
Management team
The company's CFO is Dogan Korkmaz. Dogan Korkmaz has 4 years tenure at the company.
Financial and operational results
FY ended 31 Dec 2018
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. ($TPRD) key annual financial indicators| mln. TRY | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2018/2017 |
|---|
P&L
|
|---|
| Revenue | 39,723 | 36,893 | 34,855 | 53,948 | 88,552 | 64.1% |
| Gross Profit | 1,263 | 4,175 | 3,649 | 6,214 | 9,224 | 48.4% |
| SG&A | 687 | 778 | 913 | 1,088 | 1,233 | 13.3% |
| EBITDA | 837 | 3,848 | 3,238 | 5,634 | 8,642 | 53.4% |
| Net Income | 1,459 | 2,550 | 1,793 | 3,812 | 3,713 | -2.6% |
Balance Sheet
|
|---|
| Cash | 3,898 | 3,028 | 6,051 | 8,802 | 5,983 | -32.0% |
| Short Term Debt | 777 | 1,871 | 1,958 | 5,274 | 4,113 | -22.0% |
| Long Term Debt | 6,978 | 8,048 | 10,176 | 9,777 | 13,836 | 41.5% |
Cash flow
|
|---|
| Capex | 2,258 | 961 | 885 | 1,100 | 941 | -14.4% |
Ratios
|
|---|
| Revenue growth | -3.3% | -7.1% | -5.5% | 54.8% | 64.1% | |
| EBITDA growth | 4.2% | 359.9% | -15.9% | 74.0% | 53.4% | |
|
|---|
| Gross Margin | 3.2% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 10.4% | -1.1% |
| EBITDA Margin | 2.1% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 9.8% | -0.7% |
| SG&A, % of revenue | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% | -0.6% |
| Net Income Margin | 3.7% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 4.2% | -2.9% |
| CAPEX, % of revenue | 5.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | -1.0% |
|
|---|
| ROIC | 5.3% | 25.4% | 16.8% | 25.6% | 31.2% | 5.6% |
| ROE | 25.9% | 35.3% | 21.9% | 41.3% | 36.8% | -4.5% |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 4.6x | 1.8x | 1.9x | 1.1x | 1.4x | 0.3x |
Peers in Oil & Gas Producers
Below we provide Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. benchmarking against other companies in Oil & Gas Producers industry for the last 5 years. We show data for the top-5 companies by key financial metric together with the median value for all the companies in the industry.
Top companies by Revenue growth, %
| Top 5 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 |
|---|
| Eland Oil & Gas ($ELA) | | 54.8% | -86.9% | 2,804.1% | |
| President Energy ($PPC) | -6.1% | -19.8% | -1.9% | 81.3% | |
| Amerisur Resources ($AMER) | 17.9% | -69.3% | -22.9% | 79.6% | |
| Urals Energy Public Co ($UEN) | -11.5% | -38.8% | 6.8% | 52.1% | |
| Serica Energy ($SQZ) | | | -10.8% | 49.2% | |
| |
|---|
| Median (32 companies) | 0.5% | -20.1% | -10.0% | 18.5% | 25.8% |
|---|
| Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. ($TPRD) | | -7.1% | -5.5% | 54.8% | 64.1% |
Top companies by Gross margin, %
| Top 5 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 |
|---|
| Societatea Natl De Gaze N Romgaz Sa ($SNGR) | | 99.0% | 98.5% | 98.7% | |
| Serica Energy ($SQZ) | | 67.0% | 30.7% | 60.4% | |
| Oil & Gas Development Co ($OGDC) | 68.5% | 62.7% | 54.0% | 55.3% | 59.2% |
| Tethys Petroleum Limited ($TPL) | 46.2% | -76.0% | -30.0% | 42.8% | |
| Zoltav Resources Inc ($ZOL) | 32.5% | 30.7% | 41.9% | 36.0% | |
| |
|---|
| Median (21 companies) | 19.6% | 12.6% | 13.7% | 18.2% | 17.3% |
|---|
| Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. ($TPRD) | 3.2% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 10.4% |
Top companies by EBITDA margin, %
| Top 5 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 |
|---|
| Trinity Exploration & Production ($TRIN) | 25.1% | 30.9% | 13.0% | 77.1% | |
| Societatea Natl De Gaze N Romgaz Sa ($SNGR) | | 62.5% | 49.7% | 59.3% | |
| Oil & Gas Development Co ($OGDC) | 69.3% | 62.4% | 53.9% | 55.8% | 59.3% |
| Zoltav Resources Inc ($ZOL) | -16.1% | 25.6% | 42.6% | 49.8% | |
| Serica Energy ($SQZ) | | 61.3% | 24.6% | 47.9% | |
| |
|---|
| Median (32 companies) | 15.9% | 18.8% | 13.3% | 17.9% | 11.9% |
|---|
| Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. ($TPRD) | 2.1% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 9.8% |
Top companies by CAPEX/Revenue, %
| Top 5 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 |
|---|
| President Energy ($PPC) | 10.4% | 142.7% | 147.0% | 69.1% | |
| Tethys Petroleum Limited ($TPL) | 95.2% | 37.5% | 12.0% | 66.0% | |
| Ithaca Energy Inc ($IAE) | 103.5% | 42.8% | 41.6% | 33.9% | |
| Volga Gas ($VGAS) | 14.0% | 45.5% | 12.8% | 33.9% | |
| Amerisur Resources ($AMER) | 21.2% | 72.4% | 65.8% | 33.8% | |
| |
|---|
| Median (32 companies) | 15.7% | 16.0% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 5.8% |
|---|
| Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. ($TPRD) | 5.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
Top companies by ROIC, %
| Top 5 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 |
|---|
| Trinity Exploration & Production ($TRIN) | 8.0% | 11.0% | -18.7% | 80.5% | |
| Societatea Natl De Gaze N Romgaz Sa ($SNGR) | | | 10.9% | 20.3% | |
| Novatek OAO ($NVTK) | 21.2% | 19.4% | 26.6% | 17.7% | |
| Serica Energy ($SQZ) | -5.5% | 19.4% | 5.5% | 16.9% | |
| AO Tatneft ($ATAD) | 17.8% | 19.7% | 17.0% | 15.8% | |
| |
|---|
| Median (36 companies) | 5.2% | 0.5% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 1.2% |
|---|
| Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. ($TPRD) | 5.3% | 25.4% | 16.8% | 25.6% | 31.2% |
Top companies by Net Debt / EBITDA
| Top 5 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 |
|---|
| Ruspetro ($RPO) | 27.9x | 116.8x | | 22.9x | |
| Ithaca Energy Inc ($IAE) | | | 4.5x | 7.5x | |
| Jkx Oil & Gas ($JKX) | | | | 3.5x | |
| Rosneft OJSC ($ROSN) | 2.8x | 2.3x | 2.3x | 3.1x | |
| Hellenic Petroleum Sa ($HLPD) | | 2.5x | 2.1x | 2.1x | |
| |
|---|
| Median (26 companies) | 1.3x | 1.4x | 0.9x | 0.8x | 0.8x |
|---|
| Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. ($TPRD) | 4.6x | 1.8x | 1.9x | 1.1x | 1.4x |
