Caledonia Mining Corp CAPEX surged on 111% in 2015 while Revenue dropped on 28.3%
21 Mar 2016 • About Caledonia Mining Corp (
$CMCL) • By InTwits
Caledonia Mining Corp reported 2015 financial results today. Overall the company's long term financial model is characterised by the following facts:
- EBITDA Margin is quite volatile: 18.3% in 2015, 27.1% in 2014, 38.9% in 2013, 31.9% in 2012, 49.0% in 2011
- Caledonia Mining Corp has high CAPEX intensity: 5 year average CAPEX/Revenue was 17.8%. At the same time it's a lot of higher than industry average of 20.9%.
- CAPEX is quite volatile: 13.0 in FY2015, 11.3 in FY2014, 31.3 in FY2013, 50.4 in FY2012, 27.3 in FY2011
- The company has business model with low profitability: ROIC is at 8.4%
Below you can find a comprehensive analysis of the key data driving the company's performance and stock price.
Caledonia Mining Corp ($CMCL) key annual financial indicators
| mln. $ | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2015/2014 |
|---|
P&L
|
|---|
| Revenue | 56.346 | 75.274 | 63.230 | 53.513 | 38.351 | -28.3% |
| Gross Profit | 32.467 | 40.944 | 29.017 | 18.543 | 10.321 | -44.3% |
| SG&A | | | | | 5.968 | |
| EBITDA | 27.634 | 24.000 | 24.585 | 14.517 | 7.022 | -51.6% |
| Net Income | 12.270 | 8.726 | -2.967 | 4.435 | 3.742 | -15.6% |
Balance Sheet
|
|---|
| Cash | 9.528 | 28.085 | 23.732 | 23.106 | 9.089 | -60.7% |
| Short Term Debt | 0.423 | 0.000 | 1.690 | 0.000 | 1.221 | |
| Long Term Debt | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |
Cash flow
|
|---|
| Capex | 8.626 | 7.915 | 11.399 | 6.146 | 12.973 | 111.1% |
Ratios
|
|---|
| Revenue growth | 159.1% | 33.6% | -16.0% | -15.4% | -28.3% | |
| EBITDA growth | 789.5% | -13.2% | 2.4% | -41.0% | -51.6% | |
| Gross Margin | 57.6% | 54.4% | 45.9% | 34.7% | 26.9% | -7.7% |
| EBITDA Margin | 49.0% | 31.9% | 38.9% | 27.1% | 18.3% | -8.8% |
| Net Income Margin | 21.8% | 11.6% | -4.7% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 1.5% |
| SG&A, % of revenue | | | | | 15.6% | 15.6% |
| CAPEX, % of revenue | 15.3% | 10.5% | 18.0% | 11.5% | 33.8% | 22.3% |
| ROIC | 61.7% | 37.6% | 34.9% | 18.1% | 8.4% | -9.7% |
| ROE | 36.5% | 17.9% | -5.6% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 0.0% |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | -0.3x | -1.2x | -0.9x | -1.6x | -1.1x | 0.5x |
Revenue and profitability
The company's Revenue dropped on 28.3% in 2015. Having declining revenue the company managed to increase EBITDA margin. EBITDA Margin surged on 34.3 pp from -78.0% to -43.7% in 2015.
Gross Margin decreased on 7.7 pp from 34.7% to 26.9% in 2015.
Net Income marign increased slightly on 1.5 pp from 8.3% to 9.8% in 2015.
Capital expenditures (CAPEX) and working capital investments
The company's CAPEX/Revenue was 33.8% in 2015. CAPEX/Revenue surged on 23.3 pp from 10.5% in 2012 to 33.8% in 2015. It's average CAPEX/Revenue for the last three years was 21.1%.The company has spent a lot to CAPEX (185% of EBITDA) which didn't stop revenue from falling.
Return on investment
The company operates at low ROIC (8.43%) and ROE (8.97%). ROIC decreased on 9.7 pp from 18.1% to 8.4% in 2015. ROE showed almost no change in 2015.
Leverage (Debt)
Debt level is -1.1x Net Debt / EBITDA and 0.2x Debt / EBITDA. Net Debt / EBITDA jumped on 0.5x from -1.6x to -1.1x in 2015. Debt surged while cash dropped on 60.7% in 2015.
Appendix 1: Peers in Mining
Below we provide Caledonia Mining Corp benchmarking against other companies in Mining industry for the last 5 years. We show data for the top-5 companies by key financial metric together with the median value for all the companies in the industry.
Top companies by Revenue growth, %
| Top 5 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| Patagonia Gold ($PGD) | | | | 234.6% | |
| Zccm Investments Hldgs ($ZCC) | | -30.1% | 102.1% | 92.4% | |
| Rambler Metals & Mining ($RMM) | | -65.4% | 2,744.1% | 79.2% | -34.2% |
| Shanta Gold ($SHG) | | | | 74.1% | |
| Mwana Africa ($MWA) | | 86.0% | 34.2% | 30.5% | 6.9% |
| |
|---|
| Median (28 companies) | 15.7% | 3.2% | -2.6% | -4.7% | -7.5% |
|---|
| Caledonia Mining Corp ($CMCL) | | 33.6% | -16.0% | -15.4% | -28.3% |
Top companies by Gross margin, %
| Top 5 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| Zccm Investments Hldgs ($ZCC) | 68.4% | 51.8% | 71.4% | 85.6% | |
| Rambler Metals & Mining ($RMM) | 50.2% | 44.7% | 39.6% | 52.2% | 30.6% |
| Mwana Africa ($MWA) | 32.4% | 42.9% | 45.9% | 46.6% | 38.6% |
| Kaz Minerals ($KAZ) | 54.6% | 39.7% | 41.1% | 46.1% | 35.5% |
| Polyus Gold Intl Ltd ($PGIL) | 50.5% | 51.1% | 40.2% | 46.1% | 58.8% |
| |
|---|
| Median (27 companies) | 37.5% | 38.5% | 18.6% | 22.6% | 22.8% |
|---|
| Caledonia Mining Corp ($CMCL) | 57.6% | 54.4% | 45.9% | 34.7% | 26.9% |
Top companies by EBITDA margin, %
| Top 5 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| Zccm Investments Hldgs ($ZCC) | 138.5% | 146.8% | 75.2% | 88.7% | |
| Polyus Gold Intl Ltd ($PGIL) | 43.6% | 51.1% | 18.7% | 45.9% | 58.0% |
| Rambler Metals & Mining ($RMM) | -26.1% | -194.4% | 29.6% | 45.1% | 20.5% |
| Antofagasta ($ANTO) | | 50.0% | 45.0% | 42.6% | 25.9% |
| Nord Gold Nv ($NORD) | 47.9% | 33.0% | 0.8% | 40.2% | 44.9% |
| |
|---|
| Median (30 companies) | 27.7% | 25.0% | 16.8% | 17.3% | 20.8% |
|---|
| Caledonia Mining Corp ($CMCL) | 49.0% | 31.9% | 38.9% | 27.1% | 18.3% |
Top companies by CAPEX/Revenue, %
| Top 5 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| Kaz Minerals ($KAZ) | 19.8% | 36.6% | 136.5% | 168.8% | 168.7% |
| Goldbridges Global Resources ($GBGR) | 40.3% | 26.9% | 17.6% | 73.9% | |
| Griffin Mining ($GFM) | 12.2% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 51.2% | |
| Kirkland Lake Gold Inc ($KGI) | 54.9% | 44.6% | 72.9% | 47.7% | 21.6% |
| Serabi Gold ($SRB) | 3,151.4% | | | 44.5% | |
| |
|---|
| Median (30 companies) | 16.9% | 21.5% | 17.2% | 10.2% | 14.9% |
|---|
| Caledonia Mining Corp ($CMCL) | 15.3% | 10.5% | 18.0% | 11.5% | 33.8% |
Top companies by ROIC, %
| Top 5 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| Polyus Gold Intl Ltd ($PGIL) | 23.0% | 27.0% | 4.3% | 19.2% | 29.7% |
| Mwana Africa ($MWA) | -39.7% | 0.1% | 12.6% | 18.3% | 7.5% |
| Rambler Metals & Mining ($RMM) | -1.5% | -2.6% | 3.3% | 16.7% | 0.5% |
| Shanta Gold ($SHG) | -39.2% | -14.0% | -2.4% | 15.8% | |
| Antofagasta ($ANTO) | | 26.2% | 19.4% | 14.3% | 2.6% |
| |
|---|
| Median (31 companies) | 7.2% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.6% |
|---|
| Caledonia Mining Corp ($CMCL) | 61.7% | 37.6% | 34.9% | 18.1% | 8.4% |
Top companies by Net Debt / EBITDA
| Top 5 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| Minera Irl Ltd ($MIRL) | -0.0x | 1.0x | 4.2x | 10.0x | |
| Kaz Minerals ($KAZ) | 0.6x | 2.4x | 2.9x | 5.5x | 18.7x |
| Anglo Asian Mining ($AAZ) | 0.1x | 0.7x | 2.6x | 5.2x | |
| Glencore ($GLEN) | 6.0x | 7.3x | 6.2x | 4.6x | 5.5x |
| Kirkland Lake Gold Inc ($KGI) | -1.0x | -0.3x | 3.2x | 4.1x | 0.6x |
| |
|---|
| Median (23 companies) | 0.1x | 0.8x | 1.7x | 0.7x | 0.5x |
|---|
| Caledonia Mining Corp ($CMCL) | -0.3x | -1.2x | -0.9x | -1.6x | -1.1x |
