Mmc Norilsk Nickel revenue started to decline in 2015: dropped 28.0% vs. 3.2% growth a year earliner
15 Mar 2016 • About Mmc Norilsk Nickel (
$MNOD) • By InTwits
Mmc Norilsk Nickel reported 2015 financial results today. Overall the company's long term financial model is characterised by the following facts:
- Mmc Norilsk Nickel is a company in decline: 2015 revenue growth was -28.0%, 5 years revenue CAGR was -7.7%
- Mmc Norilsk Nickel has high CAPEX intensity: 5 year average CAPEX/Revenue was 17.0%. At the same time it's a lot of higher than industry average of 10.4%.
- CAPEX is quite volatile: 4,107 in 2015, 10,899 in 2014, 12,267 in 2013, 7,327 in 2012, 3,901 in 2011
- The company has highly profitable business model: ROIC is at 31.7%
Below you can find a comprehensive analysis of the key data driving the company's performance and stock price.
Mmc Norilsk Nickel ($MNOD) key annual financial indicators
| mln. $ | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2015/2014 |
|---|
P&L
|
|---|
| Revenue | 14,122 | 12,065 | 11,499 | 11,869 | 8,542 | -28.0% |
| Gross Profit | 8,329 | 5,920 | 4,993 | 6,195 | 4,761 | -23.1% |
| SG&A | 1,647 | 1,509 | 1,373 | 1,120 | 679 | -39.4% |
| EBITDA | 6,997 | 4,653 | 3,357 | 5,551 | 4,012 | -27.7% |
| Net Income | 3,604 | 2,170 | 774 | 2,003 | 1,734 | -13.4% |
Balance Sheet
|
|---|
| Cash | 1,627 | 1,037 | 1,621 | 2,793 | 4,054 | 45.1% |
| Short Term Debt | 2,754 | 2,526 | 1,032 | 652 | 1,124 | 72.4% |
| Long Term Debt | 2,401 | 2,497 | 5,173 | 5,678 | 7,142 | 25.8% |
Cash flow
|
|---|
| Capex | 2,201 | 2,692 | 1,970 | 1,277 | 1,626 | 27.3% |
Ratios
|
|---|
| Revenue growth | 10.5% | -14.6% | -4.7% | 3.2% | -28.0% | |
| EBITDA growth | -4.9% | -33.5% | -27.9% | 65.4% | -27.7% | |
| Gross Margin | 59.0% | 49.1% | 43.4% | 52.2% | 55.7% | 3.5% |
| EBITDA Margin | 49.5% | 38.6% | 29.2% | 46.8% | 47.0% | 0.2% |
| Net Income Margin | 25.5% | 18.0% | 6.7% | 16.9% | 20.3% | 3.4% |
| SG&A, % of revenue | 11.7% | 12.5% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 7.9% | -1.5% |
| CAPEX, % of revenue | 15.6% | 22.3% | 17.1% | 10.8% | 19.0% | 8.3% |
| ROIC | 32.4% | 21.8% | 14.2% | 34.1% | 31.7% | -2.4% |
| ROE | 25.3% | 18.1% | 6.9% | 27.8% | 49.5% | 21.6% |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 0.5x | 0.9x | 1.4x | 0.6x | 1.0x | 0.4x |
Revenue and profitability
The company's Revenue dropped on 28.0% in 2015. EBITDA Margin showed almost no change in 2015.
Gross Margin increased on 3.5 pp from 52.2% to 55.7% in 2015. SG&A as a % of Revenue decreased slightly on 1.5 pp from 9.4% to 7.9% in 2015.
Net Income marign increased on 3.4 pp from 16.9% to 20.3% in 2015.
Capital expenditures (CAPEX) and working capital investments
In 2015 the company had CAPEX/Revenue of 19.0%. Mmc Norilsk Nickel showed decline in CAPEX/Revenue of 3.3 pp from 22.3% in 2012 to 19.0% in 2015. It's average level of CAPEX/Revenue for the last three years was 15.6%.
Return on investment
The company operates at high and attractive ROIC (31.70%) and ROE (49.49%). ROIC decreased on 2.4 pp from 34.1% to 31.7% in 2015. ROE surged on 21.6 pp from 27.8% to 49.5% in 2015.
Leverage (Debt)
Company's Net Debt / EBITDA is 1.0x and Debt / EBITDA is 2.1x. Net Debt / EBITDA surged on 0.4x from 0.6x to 1.0x in 2015. Debt jumped on 30.6% in 2015 while cash jumped on 45.1% in 2015.
Appendix 1: Peers in Industrial Metals & Mining
Below you can find Mmc Norilsk Nickel benchmarking vs. other companies in Industrial Metals & Mining industry. It's shown for the period of 5 years for the key financial metrics. Each table has median value for all the companies in the industry together with individual financial data of the top-5 companies in the industry by particular financial metric.
Top companies by Revenue growth, %
| Top 5 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| Afarak Group ($AFRK) | | -19.2% | 5.4% | 27.4% | 8.7% |
| Cheliabinsk Elektrolit Zink Plant ($CHZN) | 8.2% | 2.4% | -0.1% | 26.4% | |
| Norsk Hydro Asa ($NHY) | | -10.2% | 1.1% | 20.1% | 12.6% |
| Aluminium Bahrain Bsc ($ALBH) | | -15.8% | 0.8% | 9.7% | -6.7% |
| Ambrian ($AMBR) | 28,056.2% | -26.8% | 44.6% | 6.8% | |
| |
|---|
| Median (14 companies) | 18.5% | -4.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | -9.8% |
|---|
| Mmc Norilsk Nickel ($MNOD) | | -14.6% | -4.7% | 3.2% | -28.0% |
Top companies by Gross margin, %
| Top 5 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| Severstal PJSC ($SVST) | 31.0% | 23.5% | 29.9% | 34.4% | 40.4% |
| Cheliabinsk Elektrolit Zink Plant ($CHZN) | 22.5% | 17.7% | 15.1% | 28.6% | |
| Novolipetsk Iron And Steel Corp ($NLMK) | 28.6% | 23.8% | 19.4% | 28.3% | |
| First Quantum Minerals ($FQM) | 50.6% | 37.3% | 31.9% | 28.2% | 11.4% |
| Magnitogorsk Iron & Steel Works ($MMK) | 16.7% | 15.5% | 14.9% | 21.9% | 30.6% |
| |
|---|
| Median (13 companies) | 19.0% | 14.8% | 14.9% | 18.0% | 17.0% |
|---|
| Mmc Norilsk Nickel ($MNOD) | 59.0% | 49.1% | 43.4% | 52.2% | 55.7% |
Top companies by EBITDA margin, %
| Top 5 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| First Quantum Minerals ($FQM) | 47.7% | 80.0% | 38.1% | 39.9% | 17.8% |
| Severstal PJSC ($SVST) | 22.5% | 14.9% | 19.3% | 26.4% | 32.4% |
| Cheliabinsk Elektrolit Zink Plant ($CHZN) | 17.1% | 12.7% | 5.7% | 25.3% | |
| Novolipetsk Iron And Steel Corp ($NLMK) | 19.2% | 15.6% | 13.8% | 21.8% | |
| Aluminium Bahrain Bsc ($ALBH) | 28.6% | 18.5% | 18.4% | 21.6% | 17.3% |
| |
|---|
| Median (15 companies) | 15.3% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 12.6% | 15.9% |
|---|
| Mmc Norilsk Nickel ($MNOD) | 49.5% | 38.6% | 29.2% | 46.8% | 47.0% |
Top companies by CAPEX/Revenue, %
| Top 5 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| Base Resources Ltd ($BSE) | | | | 401.9% | 6.3% |
| First Quantum Minerals ($FQM) | 40.6% | 46.5% | 73.2% | 81.7% | 72.5% |
| Cheliabinsk Elektrolit Zink Plant ($CHZN) | 9.0% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 9.9% | |
| Vimetco Nv ($VICO) | | | | 8.8% | |
| Severstal PJSC ($SVST) | 10.2% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 6.4% |
| |
|---|
| Median (15 companies) | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% |
|---|
| Mmc Norilsk Nickel ($MNOD) | 15.6% | 22.3% | 17.1% | 10.8% | 19.0% |
Top companies by ROIC, %
| Top 5 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| Zibao Metals Recycling Hldgs Ltd ($ZBO) | | 41.7% | 56.6% | 55.8% | 26.6% |
| Cheliabinsk Elektrolit Zink Plant ($CHZN) | 13.6% | 6.2% | -2.7% | 25.6% | |
| Severstal PJSC ($SVST) | 21.3% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 17.7% | 30.3% |
| Novolipetsk Iron And Steel Corp ($NLMK) | 11.8% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 12.0% | |
| Aluminium Bahrain Bsc ($ALBH) | 15.6% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 9.3% | 5.6% |
| |
|---|
| Median (15 companies) | 11.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% |
|---|
| Mmc Norilsk Nickel ($MNOD) | 32.4% | 21.8% | 14.2% | 34.1% | 31.7% |
Top companies by Net Debt / EBITDA
| Top 5 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| Ambrian ($AMBR) | 3,395.4x | | 42.6x | 176.1x | |
| Ezz Steel ($AEZD) | 3.4x | 4.8x | 3.6x | 19.4x | |
| Vimetco Nv ($VICO) | 5.4x | 7.7x | | 10.9x | |
| First Quantum Minerals ($FQM) | -0.3x | 0.0x | 2.5x | 4.0x | 10.5x |
| OAO TMK ($TMKS) | 3.5x | 3.6x | 3.9x | 3.8x | 4.3x |
| |
|---|
| Median (14 companies) | 3.0x | 2.0x | 2.1x | 1.2x | 0.6x |
|---|
| Mmc Norilsk Nickel ($MNOD) | 0.5x | 0.9x | 1.4x | 0.6x | 1.0x |
