Alamos Gold Inc EBITDA Margin surged on 135 pp from -106% to 29.1% in 2016 and Revenue jumped on 35.8%
23.02.2017 • About Alamos Gold Inc (
$AGI) • By InTwits
Alamos Gold Inc reported 2016 financial results today. Overall the company's long term financial model is characterised by the following facts:
- Alamos Gold Inc doesn't have a profitable business model yet: 2016 ROIC is 0.9%
- EBITDA Margin is quite volatile: 29.1% in 2016, -105.6% in 2015, -9.4% in 2014, 53.6% in 2013, 65.1% in 2012
- Alamos Gold Inc has high CAPEX intensity: 5 year average CAPEX/Revenue was 36.1%. At the same time it's a lot of higher than industry average of 24.1%.
- CAPEX is quite volatile: 147 in 2016, 163 in 2015, 189 in 2014, 59.7 in 2013, 57.4 in 2012
- The company has potentially unprofitable business model: ROIC is at 0.9%
Below you can find a comprehensive analysis of the key data driving the company's performance and stock price.
Alamos Gold Inc ($AGI) key annual financial indicators
| mln. $ | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2016/2015 |
|---|
P&L
|
|---|
| Revenue | 329.4 | 282.2 | 288.3 | 355.1 | 482.2 | 35.8% |
| Gross Profit | 242.8 | 183.8 | 91.3 | 88.6 | 171.9 | 94.0% |
| SG&A | 14.2 | 21.9 | 18.7 | 19.8 | 16.3 | -17.7% |
| EBITDA | 214.5 | 151.1 | -27.2 | -375.1 | 140.3 | |
| Net Income | 118.0 | 38.8 | -169.6 | -508.9 | -17.9 | |
Balance Sheet
|
|---|
| Cash | 306.1 | 409.7 | 89.0 | 282.9 | 252.2 | -10.9% |
| Short Term Debt | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 3.6 | -32.1% |
| Long Term Debt | 0.0 | 0.0 | 308.1 | 315.0 | 301.3 | -4.3% |
Cash flow
|
|---|
| Capex | 57.4 | 59.7 | 188.8 | 163.1 | 146.5 | -10.2% |
Ratios
|
|---|
| Revenue growth | 44.9% | -14.3% | 2.2% | 23.2% | 35.8% | |
| EBITDA growth | 65.4% | -29.5% | -118.0% | 1,279.0% | -137.4% | |
| Gross Margin | 73.7% | 65.1% | 31.7% | 25.0% | 35.6% | 10.7% |
| EBITDA Margin | 65.1% | 53.6% | -9.4% | -105.6% | 29.1% | 134.7% |
| Net Income Margin | 35.8% | 13.7% | -58.8% | -143.3% | -3.7% | 139.6% |
| SG&A, % of revenue | 4.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 3.4% | -2.2% |
| CAPEX, % of revenue | 17.4% | 21.2% | 65.5% | 45.9% | 30.4% | -15.5% |
| ROIC | 25.4% | 12.1% | -9.7% | -21.7% | 0.9% | 22.6% |
| ROE | 19.8% | 5.3% | -13.9% | -30.3% | -1.0% | 29.3% |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | -1.4x | -2.7x | | | 0.4x | 0.4x |
Alamos Gold Inc ($AGI) key quoterly financial indicators
| mln. $ | 16Q1 | 16Q2 | 16Q3 | 16Q4 | YoY change |
|---|
P&L
|
|---|
| Revenue | 104 | 120 | 126 | 132 | 61.5% | 68.7% | 21.2% | 14.3% |
| EBITDA | 26 | 35 | 45 | 35 | 36.6% | | 251.6% | |
| Net Income | 10 | -12 | 5 | -21 | | | | |
Balance Sheet
|
|---|
| Cash | 274 | 273 | 274 | 252 | -22.1% | 9.8% | -12.7% | -10.9% |
| Short Term Debt | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | | | -15.0% | -32.1% |
| Long Term Debt | 314 | 312 | 303 | 301 | | | -3.1% | -4.3% |
Ratios
|
|---|
| Gross Margin | 31.8% | 38.1% | 40.8% | 31.5% | -10.7% | 6.4% | 16.3% | 20.0% |
| EBITDA Margin | 25.0% | 28.8% | 35.8% | 26.2% | -4.5% | 574.7% | 23.5% | 41.7% |
| Net Income Margin | 9.3% | -9.8% | 3.8% | -15.6% | 63.9% | 523.2% | 36.1% | 36.7% |
Revenue and profitability
The company's Revenue jumped on 35.8%. Revenue growth showed slow down in 16Q4 - it was 14.3% YoY. Despite revenue decline the EBITDA margin expanded. EBITDA Margin surged on 11.6 pp from 38.6% to 50.2% in 2016.
Gross Margin jumped on 10.7 pp from 25.0% to 35.6% in 2016. SG&A as a % of Revenue decreased on 2.2 pp from 5.6% to 3.4% in 2016.
Net Income marign surged on 140 pp from -143% to -3.7% in 2016.
Capital expenditures (CAPEX) and working capital investments
Alamos Gold Inc's CAPEX/Revenue was 30.4% in 2016. Alamos Gold Inc's CAPEX/Revenue increased on 9.2 pp from 21.2% in 2013 to 30.4% in 2016. It's average CAPEX/Revenue for the last three years was 47.3%.To secure this fast growth Alamos Gold Inc made large investments to CAPEX (104% of EBITDA).
Return on investment
The company operates at low but positive ROIC (0.91%) and negative ROE (-1.03%). ROIC jumped on 22.6 pp from -21.7% to 0.91% in 2016. ROE jumped on 29.3 pp from -30.3% to -1.0% in 2016.
Leverage (Debt)
Company's Net Debt / EBITDA is 0.4x and Debt / EBITDA is 2.2x. Net Debt / EBITDA surged0.4x from to 0.4x in 2016. Debt decreased on 4.8% while cash dropped on 10.9%.
Appendix 1: Peers in Basic Materials
Below you can find Alamos Gold Inc benchmarking vs. other companies in Basic Materials industry. It's shown for the period of 5 years for the key financial metrics. Each table has median value for all the companies in the industry together with individual financial data of the top-5 companies in the industry by particular financial metric.
Top companies by Revenue growth, %
| Top 5 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 |
|---|
| Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd ($ASM) | | 613.6% | 19.9% | -1.1% | 109.1% |
| Trevali Mining Corp ($TV) | | | | 12.9% | 86.4% |
| Geodrill Ltd ($GEO) | | -43.3% | -4.3% | 34.6% | 53.1% |
| Tahoe Resources Inc ($THO) | | | | 48.4% | 50.9% |
| Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd ($OR) | | | | 164.4% | 38.0% |
| |
|---|
| Median (82 companies) | 100.8% | -2.5% | 1.8% | -2.9% | 5.7% |
|---|
| Alamos Gold Inc ($AGI) | | -14.3% | 2.2% | 23.2% | 35.8% |
Top companies by Gross margin, %
| Top 5 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 |
|---|
| Nevsun Resources Ltd ($NSU) | 89.9% | 94.8% | 95.5% | 82.3% | 79.7% |
| Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corp ($LIF) | 80.2% | 80.2% | 80.2% | 80.3% | 80.3% |
| Lucara Diamond Corp ($LUC) | 42.5% | 57.4% | 66.7% | 60.9% | 65.6% |
| Trevali Mining Corp ($TV) | | | 49.0% | 59.3% | |
| Perseus Mining Ltd ($PRU) | 52.5% | 50.9% | 32.0% | 53.7% | 26.3% |
| |
|---|
| Median (94 companies) | 32.1% | 22.1% | 18.2% | 16.4% | 24.7% |
|---|
| Alamos Gold Inc ($AGI) | 73.7% | 65.1% | 31.7% | 25.0% | 35.6% |
Top companies by EBITDA margin, %
| Top 5 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 |
|---|
| Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corp ($LIF) | | | | 72.8% | 73.5% |
| Silver Wheaton Corp ($SLW) | 82.6% | 75.3% | 69.6% | 65.8% | 59.7% |
| Franco-Nevada Corp ($FNV) | 62.1% | 44.6% | 72.3% | 60.8% | 70.3% |
| Lucara Diamond Corp ($LUC) | 7.6% | 57.3% | 57.5% | 60.0% | 62.4% |
| Sandstorm Gold Ltd ($SSL) | 74.3% | 49.9% | 62.1% | 56.5% | 64.6% |
| |
|---|
| Median (100 companies) | 17.4% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 7.3% | 23.0% |
|---|
| Alamos Gold Inc ($AGI) | 65.1% | 53.6% | -9.4% | -105.6% | 29.1% |
Top companies by CAPEX/Revenue, %
| Top 5 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 |
|---|
| Largo Resources Ltd ($LGO) | | | | 567.6% | |
| Sandstorm Gold Ltd ($SSL) | 152.1% | 118.8% | 49.4% | 412.7% | 17.3% |
| Silver Wheaton Corp ($SLW) | 75.5% | 286.8% | 22.5% | 279.2% | 90.3% |
| Franco-Nevada Corp ($FNV) | 3.7% | 35.5% | 201.6% | 230.0% | 122.4% |
| Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd ($ASM) | 211.7% | 5.6% | 89.8% | 163.3% | |
| |
|---|
| Median (100 companies) | 28.1% | 27.4% | 17.5% | 16.6% | 17.5% |
|---|
| Alamos Gold Inc ($AGI) | 17.4% | 21.2% | 65.5% | 45.9% | 30.4% |
Top companies by ROIC, %
| Top 5 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 |
|---|
| Lucara Diamond Corp ($LUC) | -2.9% | 41.3% | 54.7% | 39.6% | 58.5% |
| Western Forest Products Inc ($WEF) | 9.0% | 25.1% | 15.7% | 16.4% | 25.1% |
| Geodrill Ltd ($GEO) | 8.6% | -3.5% | -9.3% | 3.6% | 20.3% |
| Supremex Inc ($SXP) | 14.1% | 18.5% | 16.5% | 23.4% | 19.3% |
| Canfor Pulp Products Inc ($CFX) | 4.9% | 13.2% | 21.3% | 24.1% | 17.0% |
| |
|---|
| Median (99 companies) | 4.9% | 0.1% | 1.6% | -3.6% | 4.8% |
|---|
| Alamos Gold Inc ($AGI) | 25.4% | 12.1% | -9.7% | -21.7% | 0.9% |
Top companies by Net Debt / EBITDA
| Top 5 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 | FY2016 |
|---|
| Canam Group Inc ($CAM) | 4.2x | 2.6x | 3.2x | 1.8x | 13.9x |
| Taseko Mines Ltd ($TKO) | 7.4x | 5.9x | 10.2x | 5.9x | 11.0x |
| Methanex Corp ($MX) | 5.2x | 0.7x | 0.9x | 3.0x | 5.2x |
| Copper Mountain Mining Corp ($CUM) | 3.9x | 5.0x | 5.4x | 30.6x | 5.1x |
| Cameco Corp ($CCO) | 2.0x | 2.1x | 2.5x | 1.9x | 5.1x |
| |
|---|
| Median (57 companies) | 0.3x | 0.9x | 1.1x | 1.6x | 0.7x |
|---|
| Alamos Gold Inc ($AGI) | -1.4x | -2.7x | | | 0.4x |
