Alamos Gold Inc revenue jumped on 23.2% in 2015 while EBITDA Margin dropped on 96.2 pp from -9.4% to -106%
24.03.2016 • About Alamos Gold Inc (
$AGI) • By InTwits
Alamos Gold Inc reported 2015 financial results today. Overall the company's long term financial model is characterised by the following facts:
- Alamos Gold Inc doesn't have a profitable business model yet: 2015 ROIC is -21.7%
- The company operates at negative EBITDA Margin: -105.6%
- EBITDA Margin is quite volatile: -105.6% in 2015, -9.4% in 2014, 53.6% in 2013, 65.1% in 2012, 57.0% in 2011
- Alamos Gold Inc has high CAPEX intensity: 5 year average CAPEX/Revenue was 36.8%. At the same time it's a lot of higher than industry average of 28.6%.
- CAPEX is quite volatile: 163 in 2015, 189 in 2014, 59.7 in 2013, 57.4 in 2012, 77.0 in 2011
- The company has unprofitable business model: ROIC is at -21.7%
Below you can find a comprehensive analysis of the key data driving the company's performance and stock price.
Alamos Gold Inc ($AGI) key annual financial indicators
| mln. $ | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2015/2014 |
|---|
P&L
|
|---|
| Revenue | 227.4 | 329.4 | 282.2 | 288.3 | 355.1 | 23.2% |
| Gross Profit | 162.3 | 242.8 | 183.8 | 91.3 | 88.6 | -3.0% |
| SG&A | 9.6 | 14.2 | 21.9 | 18.7 | 19.8 | 5.9% |
| EBITDA | 129.7 | 214.5 | 151.1 | -27.2 | -375.1 | 1,279.0% |
| Net Income | 60.1 | 118.0 | 38.8 | -169.6 | -508.9 | 200.1% |
Balance Sheet
|
|---|
| Cash | 169.5 | 306.1 | 409.7 | 89.0 | 282.9 | 217.9% |
| Short Term Debt | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.3 | 5.3 | -15.9% |
| Long Term Debt | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 308.1 | 315.0 | 2.2% |
Cash flow
|
|---|
| Capex | 77.0 | 57.4 | 59.7 | 188.8 | 163.1 | -13.6% |
Ratios
|
|---|
| Revenue growth | 20.1% | 44.9% | -14.3% | 2.2% | 23.2% | |
| EBITDA growth | 29.0% | 65.4% | -29.5% | -118.0% | 1,279.0% | |
| Gross Margin | 71.4% | 73.7% | 65.1% | 31.7% | 25.0% | -6.7% |
| EBITDA Margin | 57.0% | 65.1% | 53.6% | -9.4% | -105.6% | -96.2% |
| Net Income Margin | 26.4% | 35.8% | 13.7% | -58.8% | -143.3% | -84.5% |
| SG&A, % of revenue | 4.2% | 4.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | -0.9% |
| CAPEX, % of revenue | 33.9% | 17.4% | 21.2% | 65.5% | 45.9% | -19.6% |
| ROIC | 20.1% | 25.4% | 12.1% | -9.7% | -21.7% | -12.0% |
| ROE | 12.2% | 19.8% | 5.3% | -13.9% | -30.3% | -16.4% |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | -1.3x | -1.4x | -2.7x | | | 0.0x |
Revenue and profitability
Alamos Gold Inc's Revenue jumped on 23.2% in 2015. Revenue growth was financed by EBITDA margin decline. EBITDA Margin dropped on 96.2 pp from -9.4% to -106% in 2015.
Gross Margin decreased on 6.7 pp from 31.7% to 25.0% in 2015. SG&A as a % of Revenue decreased slightly on 0.91 pp from 6.5% to 5.6% in 2015.
Net Income marign dropped on 84.5 pp from -58.8% to -143% in 2015.
Capital expenditures (CAPEX) and working capital investments
The company's CAPEX/Revenue was 45.9% in 2015. Alamos Gold Inc showed fast CAPEX/Revenue growth of 28.5 pp from 17.4% in 2012 to 45.9% in 2015. For the last three years the average CAPEX/Revenue was 44.2%.
Return on investment
The company operates at negative ROIC (-21.72%) and ROE (-30.33%). ROIC dropped on 12.0 pp from -9.7% to -21.7% in 2015. ROE dropped on 16.4 pp from -13.9% to -30.3% in 2015.
Leverage (Debt)
Debt level is 0.1x Net Debt / EBITDA and Debt / EBITDA. Net Debt / EBITDA didn't change in 2015. Debt increased slightly on 1.9% in 2015 while cash jumped on 218% in 2015.
Appendix 1: Peers in Basic Materials
Below you can find Alamos Gold Inc benchmarking vs. other companies in Basic Materials industry. It's shown for the period of 5 years for the key financial metrics. Each table has median value for all the companies in the industry together with individual financial data of the top-5 companies in the industry by particular financial metric.
Top companies by Revenue growth, %
| Top 5 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| Barkerville Gold Mines Ltd ($BGM) | | 97.4% | -90.6% | -97.6% | 84,715.6% |
| Golden Minerals Co ($AUM) | | 1,320.8% | -59.1% | -97.8% | 3,334.5% |
| Jemi Fibre Corp ($JFI) | | | | -27.3% | 375.3% |
| Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd ($OR) | | | | | 164.4% |
| VMS Ventures Inc ($VMS) | | | | | 139.7% |
| |
|---|
| Median (116 companies) | 13.6% | 8.0% | -5.0% | -1.1% | -2.9% |
|---|
| Alamos Gold Inc ($AGI) | | 44.9% | -14.3% | 2.2% | 23.2% |
Top companies by Gross margin, %
| Top 5 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| Royal Gold Inc ($RGL) | 68.9% | 71.5% | 70.6% | 57.6% | 86.0% |
| Nevsun Resources Ltd ($NSU) | 90.3% | 89.9% | 94.8% | 95.5% | 82.3% |
| Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corp ($LIF) | 80.2% | 80.2% | 80.2% | 80.2% | 80.3% |
| Lucara Diamond Corp ($LUC) | | 42.5% | 57.4% | 66.7% | 60.9% |
| Perseus Mining Ltd ($PRU) | | 52.5% | 50.9% | 32.0% | 53.7% |
| |
|---|
| Median (111 companies) | 30.1% | 31.5% | 20.7% | 16.8% | 15.5% |
|---|
| Alamos Gold Inc ($AGI) | 71.4% | 73.7% | 65.1% | 31.7% | 25.0% |
Top companies by EBITDA margin, %
| Top 5 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corp ($LIF) | | | | | 72.8% |
| Silver Wheaton Corp ($SLW) | 84.8% | 82.6% | 75.3% | 69.6% | 65.8% |
| Royal Gold Inc ($RGL) | 86.1% | 88.2% | 88.6% | 84.4% | 65.0% |
| Franco-Nevada Corp ($FNV) | 38.6% | 62.1% | 44.6% | 72.3% | 60.8% |
| Lucara Diamond Corp ($LUC) | | 7.6% | 57.3% | 57.5% | 60.0% |
| |
|---|
| Median (116 companies) | 22.0% | 18.4% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 6.4% |
|---|
| Alamos Gold Inc ($AGI) | 57.0% | 65.1% | 53.6% | -9.4% | -105.6% |
Top companies by CAPEX/Revenue, %
| Top 5 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| Silver Wheaton Corp ($SLW) | 19.4% | 75.5% | 286.8% | 22.5% | 279.2% |
| Franco-Nevada Corp ($FNV) | 9.3% | 3.7% | 35.5% | 201.6% | 230.0% |
| Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd ($ASM) | | 211.7% | 5.6% | 89.8% | 163.3% |
| Amerigo Resources Ltd ($ARG) | 12.9% | 13.0% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 99.6% |
| Katanga Mining Ltd ($KAT) | 48.4% | 95.8% | 86.8% | 53.7% | 81.0% |
| |
|---|
| Median (116 companies) | 23.9% | 26.3% | 25.5% | 16.0% | 14.1% |
|---|
| Alamos Gold Inc ($AGI) | 33.9% | 17.4% | 21.2% | 65.5% | 45.9% |
Top companies by ROIC, %
| Top 5 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| Lucara Diamond Corp ($LUC) | -7.1% | -2.9% | 41.3% | 54.7% | 39.6% |
| Canfor Pulp Products Inc ($CFX) | 103.5% | 4.9% | 13.2% | 21.3% | 24.1% |
| Supremex Inc ($SXP) | 13.9% | 14.1% | 18.5% | 16.5% | 23.4% |
| Western Forest Products Inc ($WEF) | 7.5% | 9.0% | 25.1% | 15.7% | 16.4% |
| Mercer International Inc ($MRI.U) | 10.8% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 13.5% | 15.8% |
| |
|---|
| Median (118 companies) | 5.4% | 4.9% | -0.1% | 0.6% | -4.6% |
|---|
| Alamos Gold Inc ($AGI) | 20.1% | 25.4% | 12.1% | -9.7% | -21.7% |
Top companies by Net Debt / EBITDA
| Top 5 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| VMS Ventures Inc ($VMS) | | | | 86.7x | 4.7x |
| Ur-Energy Inc ($URE) | | | | 55.1x | 6.7x |
| Katanga Mining Ltd ($KAT) | 0.4x | 19.4x | 3.3x | 18.8x | |
| HudBay Minerals Inc ($HBM) | -2.8x | -4.8x | 2.0x | 14.0x | |
| Imperial Metals Corp ($III) | -0.1x | 1.5x | 4.9x | 12.9x | |
| |
|---|
| Median (95 companies) | -0.0x | 0.3x | 0.9x | 0.9x | 1.4x |
|---|
