Conifex Timber Inc Net Debt / EBITDA jumped on 29.8x from 6.1x to 35.9x in 2015 while EBITDA dropped on 75.7%
22.02.2016 • About Conifex Timber Inc (
$CFF) • By InTwits
Conifex Timber Inc reported 2015 financial results today. Overall the company's long term financial model is characterised by the following facts:
- Conifex Timber Inc doesn't have a profitable business model yet: 2015 ROIC is -4.2%
- EBITDA Margin is quite volatile: 1.4% in 2015, 5.7% in 2014, 8.3% in 2013, -2.5% in 2012, -9.3% in 2011
- Conifex Timber Inc has high CAPEX intensity: 5 year average CAPEX/Revenue was 13.8%. At the same time it's a lot of higher than industry average of 7.0%.
- CAPEX is quite volatile: 24.6 in 2015, 72.7 in 2014, 47.0 in 2013, 28.8 in 2012, 12.6 in 2011
- The company has unprofitable business model: ROIC is at -4.2%
- It operates with high leverage: Net Debt/EBITDA is 35.9x while industry average is 2.5x
Below you can find a comprehensive analysis of the key data driving the company's performance and stock price.
Conifex Timber Inc ($CFF) key annual financial indicators
| mln. CAD | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2015/2014 |
|---|
P&L
|
|---|
| Revenue | 124.8 | 217.6 | 259.6 | 352.9 | 353.5 | 0.2% |
| Gross Profit | -8.0 | 2.5 | 25.6 | 24.4 | 6.2 | -74.5% |
| SG&A | | | 12.2 | 15.1 | 15.6 | 3.1% |
| EBITDA | -11.6 | -5.4 | 21.5 | 20.1 | 4.9 | -75.7% |
| Net Income | -16.9 | -16.2 | 9.5 | 4.6 | -17.3 | -472.9% |
Balance Sheet
|
|---|
| Cash | 11.1 | 12.1 | 17.4 | 10.1 | 9.9 | -1.6% |
| Short Term Debt | 18.4 | 5.9 | 14.9 | 22.5 | 49.2 | 118.3% |
| Long Term Debt | 21.6 | 20.4 | 60.0 | 110.9 | 136.3 | 23.0% |
Cash flow
|
|---|
| Capex | 12.6 | 28.8 | 47.0 | 72.7 | 24.6 | -66.2% |
Ratios
|
|---|
| Revenue growth | 117.4% | 74.4% | 19.3% | 35.9% | 0.2% | |
| EBITDA growth | 98.4% | -53.8% | -500.6% | -6.4% | -75.7% | |
| Gross Margin | -6.4% | 1.1% | 9.9% | 6.9% | 1.8% | -5.2% |
| EBITDA Margin | -9.3% | -2.5% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 1.4% | -4.3% |
| Net Income Margin | -13.5% | -7.4% | 3.7% | 1.3% | -4.9% | -6.2% |
| SG&A, % of revenue | | | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 0.1% |
| CAPEX, % of revenue | 10.1% | 13.3% | 18.1% | 20.6% | 7.0% | -13.6% |
| ROIC | -15.6% | -10.8% | 8.3% | 4.2% | -4.2% | -8.4% |
| ROE | -20.1% | -18.7% | 9.2% | 4.0% | -15.2% | -19.1% |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | | | 2.7x | 6.1x | 35.9x | 29.8x |
Revenue and profitability
The company's Revenue showed almost no change in 2015. Having declining revenue the company managed to increase EBITDA margin. EBITDA Margin surged on 34.3 pp from -78.0% to -43.7% in 2015.
Gross Margin decreased on 5.2 pp from 6.9% to 1.8% in 2015. SG&A as a % of Revenue showed almost no change in 2015.
Net Income marign decreased on 6.2 pp from 1.3% to -4.9% in 2015.
Capital expenditures (CAPEX) and working capital investments
The company's CAPEX/Revenue was 7.0% in 2015. The company's CAPEX/Revenue decreased on 6.3 pp from 13.3% in 2012 to 7.0% in 2015. It's average CAPEX/Revenue for the last three years was 15.2%.Conifex Timber Inc investments to CAPEX were large: 503% of EBITDA.
Return on investment
The company operates at negative ROIC (-4.24%) and ROE (-15.15%). ROIC decreased on 8.4 pp from 4.2% to -4.2% in 2015. ROE dropped on 19.1 pp from 4.0% to -15.2% in 2015.
Leverage (Debt)
Company's Net Debt / EBITDA is 35.9x and Debt / EBITDA is 38.0x. Net Debt / EBITDA jumped on 29.8x from 6.1x to 35.9x in 2015. Debt surged on 39.1% in 2015 while cash decreased slightly on 1.6% in 2015.
Appendix 1: Peers in Industrial
Below we provide Conifex Timber Inc benchmarking against other companies in Industrial industry for the last 5 years. We show data for the top-5 companies by key financial metric together with the median value for all the companies in the industry.
Top companies by Revenue growth, %
| Top 5 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| Electrovaya Inc ($EFL) | | -4.0% | -71.2% | 160.5% | 123.8% |
| Enterprise Group Inc ($E) | 14.5% | 3.5% | 88.3% | 128.5% | |
| Carmanah Technologies Corp ($CMH) | 5.8% | -26.4% | -2.0% | 68.8% | |
| Exco Technologies Ltd ($XTC) | | 19.7% | 0.9% | 50.5% | 35.3% |
| Lumenpulse Inc ($LMP) | | 56.7% | 33.9% | 47.0% | 61.8% |
| |
|---|
| Median (92 companies) | 12.4% | 10.4% | 4.9% | 9.1% | 8.5% |
|---|
| Conifex Timber Inc ($CFF) | | 74.4% | 19.3% | 35.9% | 0.2% |
Top companies by Gross margin, %
| Top 5 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| WSP Global Inc ($WSP) | 81.1% | 81.1% | 83.2% | 81.0% | |
| Pure Technologies Ltd ($PUR) | 75.7% | 77.9% | 78.0% | 77.5% | |
| Alarmforce Industries Inc ($AF) | 76.4% | 75.0% | 76.5% | 72.2% | 69.2% |
| Epicore BioNetworks Inc ($EBN) | 59.0% | 60.8% | 63.2% | 64.1% | 58.1% |
| FLYHT Aerospace Solutions Ltd ($FLY) | 54.0% | 57.2% | 59.2% | 62.9% | |
| |
|---|
| Median (88 companies) | 23.4% | 23.4% | 23.4% | 23.1% | 25.0% |
|---|
| Conifex Timber Inc ($CFF) | -6.4% | 1.1% | 9.9% | 6.9% | 1.8% |
Top companies by EBITDA margin, %
| Top 5 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| Canadian National Railway Co ($CNR) | 46.3% | 46.5% | 45.9% | 46.8% | 50.9% |
| Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd ($CP) | 28.1% | 26.1% | 32.4% | 43.7% | 48.9% |
| Vitreous Glass Inc ($VCI) | 29.0% | 31.4% | 32.2% | 37.8% | 39.0% |
| Questor Technology Inc ($QST) | 25.1% | 25.7% | 34.9% | 34.1% | |
| Progressive Waste Solutions Ltd ($BIN) | 32.2% | 30.7% | 33.1% | 34.0% | 9.8% |
| |
|---|
| Median (85 companies) | 8.3% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 9.9% |
|---|
| Conifex Timber Inc ($CFF) | -9.3% | -2.5% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 1.4% |
Top companies by CAPEX/Revenue, %
| Top 5 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| Cargojet Inc ($CJT.A) | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 54.1% | |
| Newalta Corp ($NAL) | 17.2% | 21.7% | 34.5% | 35.1% | |
| Enterprise Group Inc ($E) | 3.6% | 17.4% | 27.2% | 32.7% | |
| ENTREC Corp ($ENT) | | 35.0% | 26.7% | 29.5% | |
| Horizon North Logistics Inc ($HNL) | 25.1% | 26.5% | 16.3% | 24.1% | |
| |
|---|
| Median (92 companies) | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% |
|---|
| Conifex Timber Inc ($CFF) | 10.1% | 13.3% | 18.1% | 20.6% | 7.0% |
Top companies by ROIC, %
| Top 5 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| Vitreous Glass Inc ($VCI) | 26.1% | 30.5% | 32.3% | 48.3% | 51.0% |
| Photon Control Inc ($PHO) | 10.1% | 21.0% | 44.4% | 38.0% | |
| SNC-Lavalin Group Inc ($SNC) | 14.6% | 10.7% | 4.0% | 35.2% | |
| Alarmforce Industries Inc ($AF) | 18.3% | 5.3% | 24.0% | 33.9% | 19.0% |
| Epicore BioNetworks Inc ($EBN) | 24.8% | 28.1% | 16.1% | 32.5% | 26.3% |
| |
|---|
| Median (93 companies) | 9.1% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 9.5% |
|---|
| Conifex Timber Inc ($CFF) | -15.6% | -10.8% | 8.3% | 4.2% | -4.2% |
Top companies by Net Debt / EBITDA
| Top 5 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| Sigma Industries Inc ($SSG) | | 4.4x | 11.3x | 225.9x | 2.9x |
| H2O Innovation Inc ($HEO) | | | 4.2x | 73.2x | 1.6x |
| Grand Power Logistics Group Inc ($GPW) | | 47.8x | | 53.1x | |
| Cargojet Inc ($CJT.A) | 1.8x | 1.5x | 1.5x | 31.5x | |
| IBI Group Inc ($IBG) | 4.2x | 6.5x | | 8.3x | |
| |
|---|
| Median (72 companies) | 1.1x | 1.5x | 1.4x | 1.2x | 1.6x |
|---|
| Conifex Timber Inc ($CFF) | | | 2.7x | 6.1x | 35.9x |
