Paladin Energy Ltd reports 39.6% revenue decline in FY2015 and 15.9 pp EBITDA Margin decline from -116% to -132%
27.08.2015 • About Paladin Energy Ltd (
$PDN) • By InTwits
Paladin Energy Ltd reported FY2015 financial results today. Overall the company's long term financial model is characterised by the following facts:
- Paladin Energy Ltd doesn't have a profitable business model yet: FY2015 ROIC is -28.2%
- The company operates at negative EBITDA Margin: -131.6%
- Paladin Energy Ltd spends a lot for Stock Based Compensation (SBC): average SBC/Revenue for FY2011-FY2015 is 0.0%. Average EBITDA Margin for the same period was -69.4%0
- Paladin Energy Ltd has high CAPEX intensity: 5 year average CAPEX/Revenue was 20.6%. At the same time it's in pair with industry average of 28.2%.
- CAPEX is quite volatile: 15.7 in FY2015, 20.3 in FY2014, 47.1 in FY2013, 82.2 in FY2012, 147 in FY2011
- The company has unprofitable business model: ROIC is at -28.2%
Below you can find a comprehensive analysis of the key data driving the company's performance and stock price.
Paladin Energy Ltd ($PDN) key annual financial indicators
| mln. $ | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2015/2014 |
|---|
P&L
|
|---|
| Revenue | 267.5 | 366.0 | 410.6 | 328.8 | 198.6 | -39.6% |
| Gross Profit | 45.3 | 22.5 | 24.1 | -65.8 | 0.9 | -101.4% |
| SG&A | 53.0 | 44.9 | 36.1 | 20.3 | 19.3 | -4.9% |
| EBITDA | -1.9 | -174.2 | -272.0 | -380.6 | -261.4 | -31.3% |
| Net Income | -82.3 | -172.8 | -420.9 | -338.4 | -267.8 | -20.9% |
Balance Sheet
|
|---|
| Cash | 97.9 | 85.9 | 52.4 | 75.6 | 152.5 | 101.7% |
| Short Term Debt | 43.9 | 183.4 | 63.6 | 39.4 | 8.5 | -78.4% |
| Long Term Debt | 675.8 | 655.1 | 614.2 | 686.2 | 526.0 | -23.3% |
Cash flow
|
|---|
| Capex | 147.0 | 82.2 | 47.1 | 20.3 | 15.7 | -22.7% |
Ratios
|
|---|
| Revenue growth | 32.2% | 36.8% | 12.2% | -19.9% | -39.6% | |
| EBITDA growth | -106.9% | 9,068.4% | 56.1% | 39.9% | -31.3% | |
| Gross Margin | 16.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | -20.0% | 0.5% | 20.5% |
| EBITDA Margin | -0.7% | -47.6% | -66.2% | -115.8% | -131.6% | -15.9% |
| Net Income Margin | -30.8% | -47.2% | -102.5% | -102.9% | -134.8% | -31.9% |
| SG&A, % of revenue | 19.8% | 12.3% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 9.7% | 3.5% |
| CAPEX, % of revenue | 55.0% | 22.5% | 11.5% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 1.7% |
| ROIC | -1.9% | -10.2% | -17.7% | -30.8% | -28.2% | 2.6% |
| ROE | -7.6% | -14.3% | -46.8% | -60.9% | -75.5% | -14.6% |
Revenue and profitability
The company's Revenue dropped on 39.6% in FY2015. Revenue decline was worsened by EBITDA margin decline. EBITDA Margin dropped on 15.9 pp from -116% to -132% in FY2015.
Gross Margin surged on 20.5 pp from -20.0% to 0.45% in FY2015. SG&A as a % of Revenue increased on 3.5 pp from 6.2% to 9.7% in FY2015.
Net Income marign dropped on 31.9 pp from -103% to -135% in FY2015.
Capital expenditures (CAPEX) and working capital investments
In FY2015 the company had CAPEX/Revenue of 7.9%. The company showed big decline in CAPEX/Revenue of 14.6 pp from 22.5% in FY2012 to 7.9% in FY2015. It's average CAPEX/Revenue for the last three years was 8.5%.
Return on investment
The company operates at negative ROIC (-28.23%) and ROE (-75.52%). ROIC increased on 2.6 pp from -30.8% to -28.2% in FY2015. ROE dropped on 14.6 pp from -60.9% to -75.5% in FY2015.
Leverage (Debt)
Debt level is -0.2x Net Debt / EBITDA and Debt / EBITDA. Net Debt / EBITDA didn't change in FY2015. Debt dropped on 26.3% in FY2015 while cash surged on 102% in FY2015.
Management team
Alexander A Molyneux "Alex" is a the company's CEO. Alexander A Molyneux "Alex" is a founder and has spent 3 years at the company. Craig Clinton Barnes is a Paladin Energy Ltd's CFO. Craig Clinton Barnes has spent 4 years at the company.
Appendix 1: Peers in Basic Materials
Below you can find Paladin Energy Ltd benchmarking vs. other companies in Basic Materials industry. It's shown for the period of 5 years for the key financial metrics. Each table has median value for all the companies in the industry together with individual financial data of the top-5 companies in the industry by particular financial metric.
Top companies by Revenue growth, %
| Top 5 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| Northern Sun Mining Corp ($NSC) | -93.3% | 315.4% | -99.4% | 8,924.9% | |
| Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd ($TRQ) | | | -34.0% | 3,268.9% | -5.8% |
| Asian Mineral Resources Ltd ($ASN) | | | | 859.1% | |
| Ur-Energy Inc ($URE) | | | | 285.4% | |
| Nevsun Resources Ltd ($NSU) | | 3.3% | -72.5% | 256.5% | |
| |
|---|
| Median (129 companies) | 27.7% | 8.0% | -5.0% | -1.1% | 17.9% |
|---|
| Paladin Energy Ltd ($PDN) | | 36.8% | 12.2% | -19.9% | -39.6% |
Top companies by Gross margin, %
| Top 5 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| Nevsun Resources Ltd ($NSU) | 90.3% | 89.9% | 94.8% | 95.5% | |
| Franco-Nevada Corp ($FNV) | 84.6% | 86.1% | 85.0% | 83.5% | |
| Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corp ($LIF) | 80.2% | 80.2% | 80.2% | 80.2% | |
| Lucara Diamond Corp ($LUC) | | 42.5% | 57.4% | 66.7% | |
| Royal Gold Inc ($RGL) | 68.9% | 71.5% | 70.6% | 57.6% | 86.0% |
| |
|---|
| Median (132 companies) | 31.2% | 31.8% | 21.9% | 17.2% | 24.1% |
|---|
| Paladin Energy Ltd ($PDN) | 16.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | -20.0% | 0.5% |
Top companies by EBITDA margin, %
| Top 5 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| Royal Gold Inc ($RGL) | 86.1% | 88.2% | 88.6% | 84.4% | 65.0% |
| Franco-Nevada Corp ($FNV) | 38.6% | 62.1% | 44.6% | 72.3% | |
| Silver Wheaton Corp ($SLW) | 84.8% | 82.6% | 75.3% | 69.6% | |
| Sandstorm Gold Ltd ($SSL) | 63.8% | 74.3% | 49.9% | 62.1% | |
| Nevsun Resources Ltd ($NSU) | 81.0% | 76.8% | 54.5% | 60.4% | |
| |
|---|
| Median (136 companies) | 23.3% | 18.5% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 4.0% |
|---|
| Paladin Energy Ltd ($PDN) | -0.7% | -47.6% | -66.2% | -115.8% | -131.6% |
Top companies by CAPEX/Revenue, %
| Top 5 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| Barkerville Gold Mines Ltd ($BGM) | 123.7% | 38.5% | 49.9% | 7,166.9% | 3.2% |
| Marlin Gold Mining Ltd ($MLN) | | | | 508.8% | |
| Imperial Metals Corp ($III) | 28.2% | 69.2% | 185.7% | 280.2% | |
| Golden Minerals Co ($AUM) | 462.4% | 36.9% | 16.8% | 212.8% | |
| Franco-Nevada Corp ($FNV) | 9.3% | 3.7% | 35.5% | 201.6% | |
| |
|---|
| Median (138 companies) | 23.9% | 26.3% | 25.4% | 16.1% | 15.7% |
|---|
| Paladin Energy Ltd ($PDN) | 55.0% | 22.5% | 11.5% | 6.2% | 7.9% |
Top companies by ROIC, %
| Top 5 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| Lucara Diamond Corp ($LUC) | -7.1% | -2.9% | 41.3% | 54.7% | |
| CanAf Group Inc ($CAF) | 74.9% | 37.0% | 65.2% | 37.6% | |
| Nevsun Resources Ltd ($NSU) | 89.8% | 52.2% | 8.8% | 35.0% | |
| Dynacor Gold Mines Inc ($DNG) | 45.6% | 62.8% | 50.9% | 31.3% | |
| Canfor Pulp Products Inc ($CFX) | 103.5% | 4.9% | 13.2% | 21.3% | |
| |
|---|
| Median (142 companies) | 7.0% | 4.9% | 0.0% | 0.2% | -4.7% |
|---|
| Paladin Energy Ltd ($PDN) | -1.9% | -10.2% | -17.7% | -30.8% | -28.2% |
Top companies by Net Debt / EBITDA
| Top 5 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | FY2014 | FY2015 |
|---|
| VMS Ventures Inc ($VMS) | | | | 86.7x | |
| Ur-Energy Inc ($URE) | | | | 55.1x | |
| Katanga Mining Ltd ($KAT) | 0.4x | 19.4x | 3.3x | 18.8x | |
| HudBay Minerals Inc ($HBM) | -2.8x | -4.8x | 2.0x | 14.0x | |
| Imperial Metals Corp ($III) | -0.1x | 1.5x | 4.9x | 12.9x | |
| |
|---|
| Median (94 companies) | -0.1x | 0.3x | 0.7x | 0.9x | -0.7x |
|---|
